Illinois vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsWIS
- Q4 14:18ILLCaleb Griffin 31 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q3 6:42ILLChase Brown 49 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)31–10
- Q3 9:03ILLCaleb Griffin 44 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:24ILLTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:31ILLTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:53WISNate Van Zelst 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:30ILLTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:15WISIsaac Guerendo 21 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTommy DeVito 18/24, 167 YDS
- RushChase Brown 25 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrian Hightower 5 REC, 59 YDS
- PassGraham Mertz 17/32, 206 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushChez Mellusi 7 CAR, 16 YDS
- RecChimere Dike 5 REC, 76 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:24ILL +22%
Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)
- Q2 7:31ILL +21%
Tommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)
- Q1 4:30ILL +15%
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)
- Q1 11:15WIS +13%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 21 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
- Q3 6:42ILL +9%
Chase Brown 49 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)
- Q3 9:03ILL +8%
Caleb Griffin 44 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Wisconsin?
Illinois 34, Wisconsin 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILL | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 304 | Total yards | 208 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 136 | Rushing yards | 2 |
| 19 | First downs | 12 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 18/24 | Comp/Att | 17/33 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 0.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 10-78 |
| 33:56 | Possession | 26:04 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:32 WIS go for it on 4th & 11 at WIS 40. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:18ILLCaleb Griffin 31 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q3 6:42ILLChase Brown 49 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)31–10
- Q3 9:03ILLCaleb Griffin 44 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:24ILLTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:31ILLTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:53WISNate Van Zelst 39 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:30ILLTommy DeVito 1 Yd Run (Caleb Griffin Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:15WISIsaac Guerendo 21 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1775, ILL Elo 1623 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -8.5 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #71 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Wisconsin leads 46–38–7 · Wisconsin has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| ILL | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.1 (#19) | CORE overall | +10.6 (#28) |
| +2 / -12 | offense / defense | -1 / -12 |
| 1.99 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 1.05 | allowed / drive | 1.80 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →