Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsWMU
- Q4 4:39WMUBlake Bosma 4 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Palmer Domschke Kick)45–23
- Q4 9:51EMUJesus Gomez 42 Yd Field Goal 45–16
- Q3 2:06WMUPalmer Domschke 28 Yd Field Goal 42–16
- Q3 4:57EMUHassan Beydoun 7 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)42–13
- Q3 6:07WMUCorey Crooms 25 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–13
- Q2 0:29EMUDarius Lassiter 38 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)35–7
- Q2 2:16EMUSamson Evans 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)28–7
- Q2 8:19WMULa'Darius Jefferson 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)21–7
- Q2 14:23EMUSamson Evans 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)21–0
- Q1 5:52EMUDylan Drummond 2 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:02EMUSamson Evans 2 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassTaylor Powell 20/30, 293 YDS, 3 TD
- RushSamson Evans 24 CAR, 90 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDarius Lassiter 6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJack Salopek 15/40, 208 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSean Tyler 15 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecJehlani Galloway 3 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:00EMU +18%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 34
- Q1 13:02EMU +15%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q2 2:16EMU +15%
Samson Evans run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q2 14:23EMU +12%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q2 8:19WMU +11%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
- Q2 11:51WMU +8%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Sean Tyler
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan?
Eastern Michigan 45, Western Michigan 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| EMU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 299 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 208 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 91 |
| 23 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 6-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 15/40 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-91 | Penalties | 12-118 |
| 30:13 | Possession | 29:47 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:51 WMU go for it on 4th & 8 at EMU 48. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:39WMUBlake Bosma 4 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Palmer Domschke Kick)45–23
- Q4 9:51EMUJesus Gomez 42 Yd Field Goal 45–16
- Q3 2:06WMUPalmer Domschke 28 Yd Field Goal 42–16
- Q3 4:57EMUHassan Beydoun 7 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)42–13
- Q3 6:07WMUCorey Crooms 25 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–13
- Q2 0:29EMUDarius Lassiter 38 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)35–7
- Q2 2:16EMUSamson Evans 6 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)28–7
- Q2 8:19WMULa'Darius Jefferson 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)21–7
- Q2 14:23EMUSamson Evans 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)21–0
- Q1 5:52EMUDylan Drummond 2 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Jesus Gomez Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:02EMUSamson Evans 2 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1366, EMU Elo 1320 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -4.2 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #84 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Western Michigan leads 33–17–1 · Western Michigan has won 3 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| EMU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.1 (#84) | CORE overall | -22.1 (#125) |
| +3 / +8 | offense / defense | -17 / +5 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 1.16 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →