Michigan State vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSUTeam statsILL
- Q4 14:27ILLIsaiah Williams 7 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Tommy DeVito Pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)23–15
- Q3 2:57MSUJayden Reed 16 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Ben Patton Kick)23–7
- Q3 5:45MSUJarek Broussard 11 Yd Run (Ben Patton Kick)16–7
- Q2 10:21MSUTre Mosley 1 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Ben Patton PAT failed)9–7
- Q1 1:36MSUBen Patton 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:03ILLIsaiah Williams 60 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Caleb Griffin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassPayton Thorne 19/29, 182 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJalen Berger 15 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecJayden Reed 5 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTommy DeVito 25/37, 288 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChase Brown 33 CAR, 136 YDS
- RecIsaiah Williams 5 REC, 98 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:45MSU +28%
Jarek Broussard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)
- Q4 14:27ILL +23%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy DeVito pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 10:21MSU +16%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton PAT MISSED)
- Q3 2:57MSU +16%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)
- Q4 4:55MSU +16%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the MchSt 49
- Q1 8:03ILL +13%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 60 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Illinois?
Michigan State 23, Illinois 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ILL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 294 | Total yards | 441 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 288 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 17 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-6 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 25/37 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-77 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 28:05 | Possession | 31:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:33 ILL go for it on 4th & 19 at MSU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.27 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:27ILLIsaiah Williams 7 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Tommy DeVito Pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)23–15
- Q3 2:57MSUJayden Reed 16 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Ben Patton Kick)23–7
- Q3 5:45MSUJarek Broussard 11 Yd Run (Ben Patton Kick)16–7
- Q2 10:21MSUTre Mosley 1 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Ben Patton PAT failed)9–7
- Q1 1:36MSUBen Patton 21 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:03ILLIsaiah Williams 60 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Caleb Griffin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1756, MSU Elo 1574 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL -9.7 (75% to win) — 6.3 points clear of MSU's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #23 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #19 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →Michigan State leads 27–20–2 · 45% have been one-possession games
| MSU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.7 (#92) | CORE overall | +14.1 (#19) |
| -2 / +5 | offense / defense | +2 / -12 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.99 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 1.05 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →