Charlotte vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLTTeam statsRICE
- Q4 6:50CLTCalvin Camp 9 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)56–23
- Q4 9:43RICEBradley Rozner 29 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)49–23
- Q3 4:37CLTVictor Tucker 20 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)49–17
- Q3 7:17CLTGrant DuBose 9 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)42–17
- Q3 12:57CLTElijah Spencer 21 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)35–17
- Q2 0:12CLTElijah Spencer 10 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)27–17
- Q2 5:52CLTShadrick Byrd 4 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)21–17
- Q2 8:22RICEChristian VanSickle 35 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:42CLTElijah Spencer 15 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:38RICEBradley Rozner 35 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:59CLTJohnny Martin III 1 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:32RICELuke McCaffrey 27 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChris Reynolds 16/19, 254 YDS, 5 TD
- RushShadrick Byrd 13 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijah Spencer 5 REC, 84 YDS, 3 TD
- PassTJ McMahon 18/33, 218 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTJ McMahon 9 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecBradley Rozner 5 REC, 105 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLT up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:12CLT +21%
C. Reynolds pass,to E. Spencer for 10 yds for a TD, (A. Zita KICK)
- Q3 12:57CLT +20%
C. Reynolds pass,to E. Spencer for 21 yds for a TD, (A. Zita KICK)
- Q2 5:52CLT +19%
S. Byrd run for 4 yds for a TD, (A. Zita KICK)
- Q2 11:42CLT +16%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 15 yds for a TD
- Q1 3:59CLT +15%
Johnny Martin III run for 1 yd for a TD
- Q1 0:38RICE +14%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 35 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Charlotte vs. Rice?
Charlotte 56, Rice 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RICE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CLT | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 514 | Total yards | 370 |
| 275 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 239 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 25 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 17/20 | Comp/Att | 18/33 |
| 13.8 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-46 | Penalties | 5-48 |
| 31:57 | Possession | 28:03 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:46 CLT punt on 4th & 5 at RICE 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:50CLTCalvin Camp 9 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)56–23
- Q4 9:43RICEBradley Rozner 29 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)49–23
- Q3 4:37CLTVictor Tucker 20 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)49–17
- Q3 7:17CLTGrant DuBose 9 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)42–17
- Q3 12:57CLTElijah Spencer 21 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)35–17
- Q2 0:12CLTElijah Spencer 10 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)27–17
- Q2 5:52CLTShadrick Byrd 4 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)21–17
- Q2 8:22RICEChristian VanSickle 35 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:42CLTElijah Spencer 15 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:38RICEBradley Rozner 35 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:59CLTJohnny Martin III 1 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:32RICELuke McCaffrey 27 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1225, CLT Elo 1049 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE -9.4 (74% to win) — 5.6 points clear of CLT's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #25 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| CLT | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.8 (#126) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#117) |
| -3 / +19 | offense / defense | -5 / +12 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 1.76 |
| 3.36 | allowed / drive | 2.95 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +11 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →