Florida International vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsNMSU
- Q2 6:00FIULexington Joseph 60 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:38FIUJalen Bracey 25 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:58NMSUStar Thomas 2 Yd Run (Brett Money Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:01FIUTyrese Chambers 4 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassGrayson James 14/20, 182 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLexington Joseph 14 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecTyrese Chambers 6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDiego Pavia 8/14, 85 YDS
- RushMoni Jones 12 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecBryce Childress 5 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:00FIU +26%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 60 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q2 9:38FIU +22%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q2 12:58NMSU +19%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brett Money KICK)
- Q1 6:01FIU +18%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q3 4:15FIU +10%
Chase Gabriel 26 yd FG MISSED
- Q2 1:42FIU +7%
Grayson James pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. New Mexico State?
Florida International 21, New Mexico State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NMSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | Total yards | 221 |
| 182 | Passing yards | 139 |
| 162 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 20 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 14/20 | Comp/Att | 13/27 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-48 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 29:15 | Possession | 30:45 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:42 NMSU punt on 4th & 8 at FIU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q2 6:00FIULexington Joseph 60 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:38FIUJalen Bracey 25 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:58NMSUStar Thomas 2 Yd Run (Brett Money Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:01FIUTyrese Chambers 4 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NMSU Elo 1093, FIU Elo 890 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU -10.5 (76% to win) — 5.0 points clear of FIU's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #22 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| FIU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.3 (#129) | CORE overall | -18.8 (#122) |
| -14 / +13 | offense / defense | -10 / +9 |
| 1.03 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 3.10 | allowed / drive | 2.46 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →