Akron vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 0:29AKRTitus Myers 4 Yd pass from Brayden Roggow (Aidan Stire PAT failed)16–38
- Q4 7:06AKRElijah Alexander 2 Yd pass from Brayden Roggow (Aidan Stire Kick)10–38
- Q4 11:49WAKEDeuce Lawrence 4 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–38
- Q3 10:16WAKEConnor Calvert 26 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 1:35AKRMatthew Schramm 28 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 4:57WAKECarlos Hernandez 78 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Steele Pizzella Pass to Will Loerzel for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q2 6:53WAKEConnor Calvert 29 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 11:39WAKEAntonio Meeks 72 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:44WAKEConnor Calvert 25 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:32WAKEKam Shanks 27 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WAKE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AKR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.0 vs 3rd & 4.8
A comfortable Wake Forest win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
Giovanni Lopez scored 18 of Wake Forest's points. They rout Akron, 38-16 at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Wake Forest led from start to finish and never let Akron within striking distance. Giovanni Lopez threw for 350 yards on 32 attempts with three touchdowns and ran seven times for 39 yards.
- PassCibastian Broughton 21/26, 111 YDS
- RushCibastian Broughton 14 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecMarcel Williams 4 REC, 38 YDS
- PassGio Lopez 21/32, 350 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTy Clark III 7 CAR, 105 YDS
- RecCarlos Hernandez 5 REC, 165 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:32WAKE +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short middle to #5 K.Shanks caught at AKR11, for 27 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:39WAKE +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete deep middle to #14 A.Meeks caught at AKR47, for 72 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Wake Forest?
Akron 16, Wake Forest 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
| AKR | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 305 | Total yards | 559 |
| 156 | Passing yards | 356 |
| 149 | Rushing yards | 203 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 28/33 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 11-115 |
| 30:36 | Possession | 29:24 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:29AKRTitus Myers 4 Yd pass from Brayden Roggow (Aidan Stire PAT failed)16–38
- Q4 7:06AKRElijah Alexander 2 Yd pass from Brayden Roggow (Aidan Stire Kick)10–38
- Q4 11:49WAKEDeuce Lawrence 4 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–38
- Q3 10:16WAKEConnor Calvert 26 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 1:35AKRMatthew Schramm 28 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 4:57WAKECarlos Hernandez 78 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Steele Pizzella Pass to Will Loerzel for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q2 6:53WAKEConnor Calvert 29 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 11:39WAKEAntonio Meeks 72 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:44WAKEConnor Calvert 25 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:32WAKEKam Shanks 27 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1520, AKR Elo 925 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE -12 (78% to win) — 15.5 points clear of AKR's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AKR | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#133) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#31) |
| -5 / +12 | offense / defense | +4 / -8 |
| 1.70 | points / drive | 3.70 |
| 3.70 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Carlos Hernandez went for 165 receiving yards for Wake Forest
A comfortable Wake Forest win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
The big plays only went one way
Wake Forest produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to Akron's 3, led by Giovanni Lopez (involved in 9), Carlos Hernandez (involved in 5) and Ty Clark III (involved in 3). Wake Forest scored on 64% of its drives to Akron's 27%: Giovanni Lopez (18 pts), Carlos Hernandez (6 pts) and Antonio Meeks (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Giovanni Lopez threw for 350 yards on 32 attempts with three touchdowns and ran seven times for 39 yards — four third-down conversions and a hand in nine plays of 15 yards or more. Carlos Hernandez caught five passes for 165 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with two third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Antonio Meeks caught three passes for 93 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Akron, Brayden Roggow threw for 45 yards on seven attempts with two touchdowns — two of them from inside the 20. Titus Myers caught one pass for 4 yards for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Jordan Gant ran eight times for 15 yards and caught one pass for 5 yards. Braylon Johnson was the disruptive one for Wake Forest: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 4.5 tackles.
What Akron has to fix
The problems had names: Jordan Gant (1 lost fumble).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Braylon Johnson (1 sack, 1 TFL, 4.5 tackles) for Wake Forest and Vincent Firenze (1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 6.5 tackles) for Wake Forest. 2 of Wake Forest's 3 sacks came from the defensive line, which is how this defense has generated pressure since 2016.
How it unfolded
Wake Forest struck first through Giovanni Lopez, led 28-3 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by Brayden Roggow.
How it graded
The closing line had Wake Forest -27.5. Akron covered. The total was 50.5; the teams combined for 54, an over. Brayden Roggow accounted for 12 of Akron's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Wake Forest cleared the bar with room to spare; Akron goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →