@ South Carolina · Wk 3Win prob 26%Model +10.1Schedule & Results
SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Kamario TaylorPassing581 yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
Fluff BothwellRushing165 yds · 2 TD · 6.1 avg
Anthony Evans IIIReceiving14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
Jalen SmithTackles12 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Mississippi State
All news →Mississippi State's only path is the explosive play
ULM sacked nobody: not Kamario Taylor, not Parker Puckett
Mississippi State kept the run game, replaced the receivers
Roster · 115 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamario Taylor | QB | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Macon, MS |
| 8 | Jaden Rashada | QB | JR | 6'4" | 195 | Pittsburg, CA |
| 14 | Brodie McWhorter | QB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Kingston, GA |
| 15 | Parker Puckett | QB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Flowood, MS |
| 17 | AJ Swann | QB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Canton, GA |
| 5 | Xavier Gayten | RB | JR | 6'0" | 205 | Brookhaven, MS |
| 6 | Kolin Wilson | RB | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Gulf Shores, AL |
| 21 | J.J. Hill | RB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Tupelo, MS |
| 22 | Brinston Williams | RB | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Suwanee, GA |
| 24 | Fluff Bothwell | RB | JR | 5'10" | 230 | Oneonta, AL |
| 25 | Cooper Crosby | RB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Gulfport, MS |
| 0 | Gracen Harris | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Ennis, TX |
| 2 | Marquis Johnson | WR | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Dickinson, TX |
| 3 | Anthony Evans III | WR | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Converse, TX |
| 7 | Zion Ragins | WR | SO | 5'8" | 170 | Macon, GA |
| 9 | Camden Capehart | WR | FR | 5'8" | 180 | Winnsboro, TX |
| 10 | Bull Mitchell | WR | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Fort Valley, GA |
| 11 | Ayden Williams | WR | SR | 6'3" | 205 | Ridgeland, MS |
| 12 | Matt Mayfield | WR | JR | 6'2" | 185 | Sunset, LA |
| 13 | Sanfrisco Magee | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Mccomb, MS |
| 16 | Jayden Cration | WR | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Canton, MS |
| 19 | Junior Henderson | WR | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Carthage, TX |
| 22 | Jayytee Taylor | WR | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Macon, MS |
| 80 | Fisher Southall | WR | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Fairhope, AL |
| 81 | Zion Crumpton | WR | FR | 6'1" | 165 | Montgomery, AL |
| 89 | Jessie Primer IV | WR | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Canton, MS |
| 4 | Zayion Cotton | TE | FR | 6'5" | 230 | Grenada, MS |
| 18 | Riley Williams | TE | JR | 6'5" | 250 | Portland, OR |
| 84 | Adam Land | TE | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Panama City, FL |
| 85 | Luke Hutchinson | TE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Nashville, TN |
| 87 | Sam West | TE | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Greensburg, IN |
| 88 | Joeseph Skipworth | TE | FR | 6'5" | 225 | Pace, FL |
| 50 | LJ Prudhomme | OL | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Shreveport, LA |
| 53 | Dylan Steen | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | Doral, FL |
| 54 | Blake Steen | OL | JR | 6'6" | 340 | Miami, FL |
| 55 | Jakheem Shumpert-Perkins | OL | JR | 6'5" | 330 | Plantersville, MS |
| 56 | Wesley Davis | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Collierville, TN |
| 58 | Miles McVay | OL | JR | 6'6" | 335 | East St. Louis, IL |
| 59 | Tyler Miller | OL | FR | 6'6" | 335 | Laurel, MS |
| 60 | Matthew Lefeau | OL | JR | 6'5" | 350 | Tacoma, WA |
| 62 | Jamari Freeman | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Fairburn, GA |
| 63 | Mario Nash | OL | FR | 6'4" | 305 | De Kalb, MS |
| 65 | Spencer Dowland | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Athens, AL |
| 66 | Ja'Elyne Matthews | OL | FR | 6'6" | 350 | Toms River, NJ |
| 70 | Breyden Turnage | OL | FR | 6'7" | 320 | Dyersburg, TN |
| 71 | Saquon Miles | OL | JR | 6'5" | 320 | Greenville, AL |
| 72 | Canon Boone | OL | SR | 6'4" | 315 | Kemah, TX |
| 73 | Leon Noil Jr. | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | New Orleans, LA |
| 74 | Kison Shepard | OL | JR | 6'7" | 350 | Memphis, TN |
| 75 | Isaiah Dent | OL | SO | 6'6" | 320 | Fulton, MS |
| 76 | Jayden Ross | OL | FR | 6'6" | 330 | Ocean Springs, MS |
| 77 | TJ Lockhart | OL | SO | 6'5" | 350 | Kilmichael, MS |
| 78 | DJ Chester | OL | JR | 6'6" | 315 | Conyers, GA |
| 79 | Dalton Toothman | OT | FR | 6'5" | 320 | Vancleave, MS |
| 40 | Gus Cordova | DE | FR | 6'4" | 270 | Austin, TX |
| 4 | Amaree Williams | EDGE | JR | 6'4" | 240 | North Palm Beach, FL |
| — | Shawn Gee | EDGE | SO | 6'4" | 240 | Birmingham, AL |
| 9 | Jaray Bledsoe | DL | SR | 6'4" | 315 | Marlin, TX |
| 14 | Dealyn Evans | DL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Longview, TX |
| 19 | Micah Nickerson | DL | FR | 6'5" | 260 | Magnolia, MS |
| 23 | Trevion Williams | DL | JR | 6'4" | 295 | Crystal Springs, MS |
| 33 | Douglas Adams III | DL | JR | 6'3" | 240 | San Francisco, CA |
| 35 | Kalvin Dinkins | DL | SR | 6'2" | 320 | Lake, MS |
| 41 | Tyshun Willis | DL | FR | 6'2" | 260 | Camden, MS |
| 42 | DJ Reed | DL | JR | 6'4" | 285 | Columbus, GA |
| 43 | Will Whitson | DL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 55 | Colin Coates | DL | JR | 6'2" | 320 | Baltimore, MD |
| 88 | Tico Crittendon | DL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Lithonia, GA |
| 90 | Davon Young | DL | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Mobile, AL |
| 91 | Lorenz Cammon | DL | JR | 6'4" | 260 | Upland, CA |
| 92 | Kaleb Morris | DL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Mobile, AL |
| 97 | Jayson Jenkins | DL | SR | 6'6" | 280 | Bordentown, NJ |
| 99 | Diesel Moye | DL | SR | 6'5" | 345 | Phenix City, AL |
| 0 | Fatt Forrest | LB | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Kilmichael, MS |
| 7 | Zakari Tillman | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Florence, MS |
| 10 | Jalen Smith | LB | JR | 6'2" | 230 | Grayson, GA |
| 11 | Tyler Lockhart | LB | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Kilmichael, MS |
| 12 | Ja'Bryis Stewart | LB | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Crystal Springs, MS |
| 13 | LaKendrick James | LB | JR | 6'2" | 250 | Shelby, MS |
| 16 | Derion Gullette | LB | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Marlin, TX |
| 32 | AJ Rice | LB | FR | 6'1" | 240 | Huntsville, AL |
| 44 | Gav Holman | LB | FR | 6'1" | 245 | Uniondale, NY |
| 45 | James Heard Jr. | LB | JR | 6'2" | 230 | Camden, NJ |
| 48 | Chris Addison | LB | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Winnsboro, LA |
| 1 | Kelley Jones | CB | SR | 6'4" | 205 | Clarksdale, MS |
| 8 | Kaylib Singleton | CB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 17 | Kyle Johnson | CB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Cottonport, LA |
| 20 | Jett Jefferson | CB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Tylertown, MS |
| 24 | Quentin Taylor | CB | SO | 6'0" | 205 | Apopka, FL |
| 26 | Jamroc Grimsley | CB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Tampa, FL |
| 30 | Camron Brown | CB | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Valdosta, GA |
| 36 | Terrell Johnson Jr. | CB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Lexington, MS |
| 37 | Dre Otey | CB | FR | 6'2" | 160 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 38 | Jaylen Antoine | CB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Bay Saint Louis, MS |
| 47 | Sean Pleasant | DB | FR | 6'2" | 170 | Austin, TX |
| 2 | Isaac Smith | S | SR | 6'0" | 220 | Fulton, MS |
| 3 | Kendel Dolby | S | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Springfield, OH |
| 5 | Jardin Gilbert | S | SR | 6'1" | 195 | White Castle, LA |
| 6 | Bralan Womack | S | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Brandon, MS |
| 15 | Marcus Williams | S | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Hoover, AL |
| 18 | Sekou Smith Jr. | S | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Miami, FL |
| 21 | Dre Riley | S | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Charleston, MS |
| 25 | Kolby Barrett | S | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 27 | Antavious Watts | S | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Columbus, GA |
| 28 | Tanner Johnson | S | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Kyle, TX |
| 29 | Boogie Johnson | S | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Hooks, TX |
| 31 | Terrance Love | S | JR | 6'2" | 210 | Atlanta, GA |
| 34 | Vic Sutton | S | JR | 6'3" | 215 | Madison, MS |
| 47 | William Wilkinson | PK | SO | 6'2" | 185 | Oxford, MS |
| 48 | Hayden Chambers | PK | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Fort Payne, AL |
| 80 | Kyle Ferrie | PK | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Searcy, AR |
| 83 | Oisin Flynn | PK | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Dublin |
| 88 | Ethan Pulliam | P | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Starkville, MS |
| 39 | Kallen Cosper | LS | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Humble, TX |
| 46 | Kyle Rushing | LS | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Mccomb, MS |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Mississippi State is in year 3 under Jeff Lebby. The strengths are offensive, led by 35th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 124th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 110th at shutting down the ground game.
Mississippi State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#124projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#110projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 4.13#4
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.58 / 2.08
- Power / stuff (off)
- 75.0% / 9.6%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 14.0%#105
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.8% / 5.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.38#9 | 0.78#4 | 0.90#19 |
| Defense | -0.03#76 | -0.44#5 | 0.14#27 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.5496th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0782nd
- Offense success rate58%96th
- Defense success rate allowed33%72nd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs61%91st
- Offense success — passing downs49%94th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs41%59th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs16%96th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.355th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.182nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.164th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.051st
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.890th
- Defense line yards allowed2.375th
- Offense highlight yards2.588th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.2289th
- Offense power success0.8375th
- Defense power success allowed0.5078th
- Offense stuff rate0.1757th
- Defense stuff rate0.2147th
Third down
- Third down conversion52%79th
- Third down distance faced5.590th
- Third down conversion allowed24%88th
- Third down distance forced7.039th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3296th
- Net success rate — second half0.1471st
Drives
- Points per drive5.198th
- Points per drive allowed0.9587th
- Average starting field position2413th
- Opponent starting field position2481st
- Available yards gained81%97th
- Available yards allowed35%82nd
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed90%29th
- Points per scoring opportunity5.196th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.194th
- Three-and-out rate5%95th
- Three-and-outs forced45%94th
CORE
- CORE offense16.799th
- CORE defense-9.297th
- CORE overall25.999th
Roster
- Returning usage40%46th
- Returning EPA11053rd
- Team talent composite80586th
- Recruiting class rank23.084th
- Recruiting class points23184th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.030 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 21 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 50.5%
- Expected, given the spots
- 46.5%
- Over expected
- +4.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- -12
- Fourth down vs the model
- -33
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Mississippi State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Mississippi State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 5-8 | 1-7 | 38% | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 1-7 | 42% | 4.8 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 6.9 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 4-7 | 3-7 | 36% | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 9.5 | -0.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
2-0 so far, projected to finish 6.5-5.5. Top-four bye in 1.1%. Wins the SEC in 0.6%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
up 4.8 points since preseason — won 62-13 over UL Monroe against an expected margin of +36, so +12.9 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 23% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.
Mississippi State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at Texas20.6
- wk7at LSU18.5
- wk5vs Alabama14.1
- wk3at South Carolina12.0
- wk13at Ole Miss11.7
- wk8vs Oklahoma11.6
Who to root for
Games Mississippi State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk6Kentucky over LSU1.5
- wk4Delaware over Virginia1.2
- wk10UL Monroe over Arkansas State1.1
- wk11Minnesota over Penn State0.9
- wk8UL Monroe over Troy0.9
- wk13Arkansas over LSU0.9
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 3.5-5.512 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Mississippi State at Texas2.8
- wk7Mississippi State at LSU2.4
- wk5Alabama at Mississippi State1.6
- wk3Mississippi State at South Carolina1.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Mississippi State is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.3% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Texas Bowl9.6%
- Liberty Bowl9.0%
- Music City Bowl8.9%
- Birmingham Bowl8.5%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl7.4%
- Gator Bowl6.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Mississippi State a player since 2010 — 14 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Mississippi State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.