vs LSU · Wk 3Win prob 78%Model -11.3Schedule & Results
SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Trinidad ChamblissPassing561 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
Kewan LacyRushing148 yds · 3 TD · 4.9 avg
Deuce AlexanderReceiving13 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD
Keaton ThomasTackles12 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 121 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deuce Knight | QB | FR | 6'5" | 225 | Lucedale, MS |
| 6 | Trinidad Chambliss | QB | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| 8 | AJ Maddox | QB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 13 | Jack Patterson | QB | SO | 6'3" | 205 | Marion, AR |
| 14 | Walker Howard | QB | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Lafayette, LA |
| 16 | George Hamsley | QB | SR | 6'5" | 235 | Memphis, TN |
| 19 | Rees Wise | QB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Austin, TX |
| 5 | Kewan Lacy | RB | JR | 5'11" | 205 | Dallas, TX |
| 25 | Makhi Frazier | RB | JR | 5'10" | 225 | McKinney, TX |
| 26 | JT Lindsey | RB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Alexandria, LA |
| 28 | Joshua Dye | RB | JR | 5'10" | 200 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 33 | Shekai Mills-Knight | RB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Montreal, PQ |
| 35 | Damarius Yates | RB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | De Kalb, MS |
| 36 | Ja'Michael Jones | RB | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Montgomery, AL |
| 0 | Johntay Cook II | WR | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Desoto, TX |
| 1 | Deuce Alexander | WR | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Douglasville, GA |
| 3 | Caleb Cunningham | WR | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Weir, MS |
| 7 | Traylon Ray | WR | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 11 | Horatio Fields | WR | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Douglasville, GA |
| 12 | Izaiah Hartrup | WR | SR | 5'11" | 180 | O' Fallon, MO |
| 15 | Darrell Gill Jr. | WR | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Atascocita, TX |
| 22 | Cameron Miller | WR | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Camden, NJ |
| 24 | Case Thomas | WR | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Madison, MS |
| 27 | Kervin Johnson Jr. | WR | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Tioga, LA |
| 29 | William Jones | WR | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Collierville, TN |
| 47 | Anthony Aguirre | WR | SR | 6'4" | 215 | Spokane, WA |
| 81 | Samari Reed | WR | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Margate, FL |
| 83 | Levi Blount | WR | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Oxford, MS |
| 84 | Dillon Alfred | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Gautier, MS |
| 85 | Isaiah Spencer | WR | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Flora, MS |
| 88 | Jase Mathews | WR | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Leakesville, MS |
| 89 | Dylan Davis | WR | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Frisco, TX |
| 4 | Caleb Odom | TE | JR | 6'5" | 240 | Carrollton, GA |
| 9 | Luke Hasz | TE | SR | 6'2" | 240 | Bixby, OK |
| 42 | Jack Harper | TE | SO | 6'4" | 245 | Oxford, MS |
| 80 | Hayden Bradley | TE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Buford, GA |
| 82 | Michael Smith | TE | SO | 6'4" | 260 | Savannah, GA |
| 86 | Brady Prieskorn | TE | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Lake Orion, MI |
| 87 | Wyatt Smalley | TE | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Milton, GA |
| 50 | Troy Everett | OL | SR | 6'3" | 315 | Roanoke, VA |
| 51 | Delano Townsend | OL | JR | 6'4" | 330 | Flint, MI |
| 52 | Cooper Johnson | OL | SO | 6'6" | 330 | Lincoln, NE |
| 53 | Trey Nightingale | OL | SO | 6'0" | 265 | Wyckoff, NJ |
| 55 | Terez Davis | OL | SO | 6'4" | 300 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 56 | Mason Waddle | OL | FR | 5'11" | 250 | Tupelo, MS |
| 57 | Carius Curne | OL | SO | 6'5" | 330 | Hughes, AR |
| 61 | Tommy Kinsler IV | OL | JR | 6'6" | 350 | Ocala, FL |
| 62 | Brycen Sanders | OL | JR | 6'5" | 315 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 65 | Connor Howes | OL | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Saint Cloud, FL |
| 67 | Kane Mankins | OL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Attleboro, MA |
| 69 | Joe Koury | OL | SO | 5'10" | 280 | Madison, MS |
| 70 | Jalan Chapman | OL | FR | 6'3" | 315 | New Orleans, LA |
| 71 | Emanuel Faulkner | OL | FR | 6'6" | 305 | New Albany, MS |
| 75 | Patrick Kutas | OL | SR | 6'6" | 315 | Memphis, TN |
| 76 | John Wayne Oliver | OL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Nashville, TN |
| 77 | Enoch Wangoy | OL | SO | 6'7" | 350 | Manchester |
| 79 | Roman Womack | OL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Southaven, MS |
| 1 | Jordan Renaud | DE | JR | 6'3" | 265 | Sarasota, FL |
| 3 | Blake Purchase | DE | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Green Valley Ranch, CO |
| 5 | Kam Franklin | DE | JR | 6'5" | 295 | Lake Cormorant, MS |
| 15 | Landon Barnes | DE | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 17 | Jonathan Maldonado | DE | SR | 6'6" | 250 | Monrovia, CA |
| 45 | Talib Graham | DE | FR | 6'1" | 250 | Daphne, AL |
| 54 | Tre Ellis | DE | FR | 6'1" | 260 | Gallman, MS |
| 55 | Cam Clark | DE | SO | 6'2" | 255 | Medina, TN |
| 99 | Carmelow Reed | DE | FR | 6'6" | 275 | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Jehiem Oatis | DT | SR | 6'5" | 340 | Columbia, MS |
| 52 | Will Echoles | DT | JR | 6'3" | 315 | Houston, MS |
| 88 | Michai Boireau | DT | JR | 6'5" | 355 | Atlanta, GA |
| 90 | Jayden Curtis | DT | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Perkinston, MS |
| 91 | Jamarion Owens | DT | FR | 6'1" | 295 | Raleigh, MS |
| 95 | Andrew Maddox | DT | FR | 6'3" | 285 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 96 | Jamarious Brown | DT | JR | 6'2" | 315 | Moss Point, MS |
| 97 | Kamron Beavers | DT | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Bay Springs, MS |
| 4 | Suntarine Perkins | LB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Raleigh, MS |
| 11 | Keaton Thomas | LB | SR | 6'1" | 240 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 12 | Luke Ferrelli | LB | SO | 6'3" | 230 | San Diego, CA |
| 22 | Raymond Collins | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Gulfport, MS |
| 23 | Jarcoby Hopson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 250 | Tunica, MS |
| 26 | Ant Davis Jr. | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Decatur, GA |
| 30 | JaMichael Garrett | LB | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 42 | Bryson Walters | LB | FR | 6'2" | 240 | Fulton, MS |
| 44 | Tony Mitchell | LB | SR | 6'1" | 240 | Alabaster, AL |
| 48 | Mark Trigg Jr. | LB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Roswell, GA |
| 49 | Tah'j Butler | LB | JR | 6'1" | 235 | New Orleans, LA |
| 53 | Ford Beeker | LB | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 56 | Hayden Parker | LB | FR | 5'11" | 215 | Collierville, TN |
| 0 | Jalyn Crawford | CB | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Atlanta, GA |
| 2 | Jaylon Braxton | CB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Frisco, TX |
| 8 | Antonio Kite | CB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Anniston, AL |
| 13 | Cedrick Beavers | CB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Taylorsville, MS |
| 16 | Dorian Barney | CB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Carrollton, GA |
| 21 | Tavoy Feagin | CB | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Tampa, FL |
| 25 | Maison Dunn | CB | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Tupelo, MS |
| 27 | Pat Broomfield | CB | SO | 6'1" | 165 | Clarksdale, MS |
| 28 | Dante Core | CB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Fort Walton Beach, FL |
| 32 | Victor Lincoln Jr. | CB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Lancaster, TX |
| 34 | Iverson McCoy | CB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Tupelo, MS |
| 41 | John Ross Ashley | CB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Vestavia Hills, AL |
| 43 | Isreal Solomon | CB | JR | 5'9" | 175 | Dallas, TX |
| 6 | Joenel Aguero | S | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Lynn, MA |
| 7 | Sharif Denson | S | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 14 | Edwin Joseph | S | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Tamarac, FL |
| 19 | MJ Preston | S | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Petersburg, VA |
| 20 | Anthony Robinson III | S | SO | 6'0" | 200 | Saint Rose, LA |
| 24 | Andy Jaffe | S | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Tampa, FL |
| 29 | Nick Cull | S | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Donalsonville, GA |
| 31 | Ladarian Clardy | S | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Pensacola, FL |
| 35 | Craig Tutt | S | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Christiana, TN |
| 36 | Keon Young | S | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Bartow, FL |
| 37 | Cortez Thomas | S | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Lexington, MS |
| 39 | Gerald Lacy Jr. | S | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Lancaster, TX |
| 46 | Nascar McCoy | S | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Atlanta, GA |
| 17 | Lucas Carneiro | PK | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Cornelius, NC |
| 41 | Peter McStravick | PK | SO | 6'2" | 185 | Dundalk |
| 46 | Jackson Moore | PK | SR | 5'11" | 170 | Waxhaw, NC |
| 33 | Oscar Bird | P | SO | 6'4" | 220 | Sydney, NSW |
| 47 | Stephon Weise | P | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Chandler, AZ |
| 50 | Caleb Blankenship | LS | SO | 6'2" | 240 | Ashdown, AR |
| 83 | Sean Judge | LS | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Attleboro, MA |
| 93 | Richie Bruder | LS | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Malvern, PA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Ole Miss is in year 1 under Pete Golding. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 110th at keeping everything in front of them.
Ole Miss has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#7projected
- Offensefirst and second down#14projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#110projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.86#98
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.97 / 0.60
- Power / stuff (off)
- 71.4% / 19.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.5%#72
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.6% / 3.9%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.14#54 | 0.64#10 | 0.19#121 |
| Defense | 0.21#131 | 0.18#82 | 0.35#72 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3476th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1917th
- Offense success rate55%91st
- Defense success rate allowed40%37th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs60%88th
- Offense success — passing downs43%86th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs49%21st
- Defense success allowed — passing downs22%74th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.236th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.247th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9531st
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.590th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.161st
- Defense line yards allowed2.372nd
- Offense highlight yards0.7130th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.614th
- Offense power success0.8268th
- Defense power success allowed0.6064th
- Offense stuff rate0.2126th
- Defense stuff rate0.3091st
Third down
- Third down conversion37%31st
- Third down distance faced5.982nd
- Third down conversion allowed37%50th
- Third down distance forced7.246th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1468th
- Net success rate — second half0.1366th
Drives
- Points per drive3.685th
- Points per drive allowed2.153rd
- Average starting field position3060th
- Opponent starting field position3043rd
- Available yards gained59%74th
- Available yards allowed46%58th
- Scoring opportunities per drive82%57th
- Scoring opportunities allowed77%60th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.488th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.755th
- Three-and-out rate23%52nd
- Three-and-outs forced27%60th
CORE
- CORE offense7.792nd
- CORE defense4.021st
- CORE overall3.768th
Roster
- Returning usage68%81st
- Returning EPA27993rd
- Team talent composite88691st
- Recruiting class rank22.085th
- Recruiting class points23785th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.329 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 22 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 53.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 44.0%
- Over expected
- +9.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- -13
- Fourth down vs the model
- -40
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Ole Miss is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Ole Miss in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.7 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 13-2 | 7-1 | 87% | 11.8 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 10-3 | 5-3 | 77% | 11.2 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 9.3 | -1.3 |
| 2021 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 5-5 | 4-5 | 50% | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 1-7 | 42% | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 2017 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 50% | 5.6 | +0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
2-0 so far, projected to finish 6.8-5.2. Top-four bye in 2.2%. Wins the SEC in 1.0%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 6.5 points since preseason — won 41-38 over Louisville against an expected margin of +5, so −2.4 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 37% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.
Ole Miss’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk8at Texas26.2
- wk10vs Georgia21.4
- wk3vs LSU20.6
- wk4at Florida19.4
- wk11at Oklahoma18.8
- wk7vs Missouri15.2
Who to root for
Games Ole Miss is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk7Auburn over Georgia1.9
- wk7Mississippi State over LSU1.4
- wk3Florida State over Alabama1.3
- wk6Kent State over Western Michigan1.3
- wk3Utah State over Utah1.3
- wk3Auburn over Florida1.2
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 3.8-5.211 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk8Ole Miss at Texas3.7
- wk10Georgia at Ole Miss3.1
- wk3LSU at Ole Miss2.8
- wk4Ole Miss at Florida2.4
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Ole Miss is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.4% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Texas Bowl9.3%
- Music City Bowl9.1%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl8.5%
- Liberty Bowl8.2%
- Gator Bowl7.4%
- ReliaQuest Bowl6.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 5 have sent Ole Miss a player since 2010 — 19 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Ole Miss's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.