#18Will Howard

QB·Kansas State·2024 2023

Will Howard is a Dual-Threat QB for Kansas State. Will's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 427 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Will Howard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

219/358 Comp/Att2643 Pass yards24 Pass TD10 INT61.2% Comp %

Rushing

364 Rush yards9 Rush TD80 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch56

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.11 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs TCU (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSoutheast Missouri State	W45-0	—	18/26	297	2	1	65.9	5	1	0.68
2	vsTroy	W42-13	9.8	21/32	250	3	1	81.4	33	2	0.58
3	@Missouri	L27-30	19.3	25/39	270	3	1	65.0	21	0	0.21
4	vsUCF	W44-31	3.4	27/42	255	0	1	81.0	64	2	0.38
6	@Oklahoma State	L21-29	6.7	15/34	152	1	3	42.4	104	1	-0.07
7	@Texas Tech	W38-21	6.1	6/9	86	0	0	29.7	0	0	0.24
8	vsTCU	W41-3	7.9	10/16	154	3	0	97.6	62	0	0.79
9	vsHouston	W41-0	-7.8	15/17	164	2	0	94.8	24	0	0.39
10	@Texas	L30-33	23.2	26/42	327	4	1	57.4	-10	0	0.35
11	vsBaylor	W59-25	-8.3	19/29	235	3	0	93.3	-3	1	0.47
12	@Kansas	W31-27	9.9	13/24	165	2	1	82.7	18	1	0.45
13	vsIowa State	L35-42	7.5	24/48	288	1	1	70.8	46	1	0.24

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.1%

Passing plays

90.9%

Rushing plays

13.7%

Standard downs

45.9%

Passing downs

57.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.60

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 16 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.