#15Ty Simpson

QB·Alabama·20258.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Ty Simpson is a Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Ty's 2025 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 560 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ty Simpson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

305/473 Comp/Att3567 Pass yards28 Pass TD5 INT64.5% Comp %

Rushing

93 Rush yards2 Rush TD90 Carries1.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat71
Consistency75
Clutch91

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.44 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.27 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -22).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Florida State	L17-31	7.2	23/43	254	2	0	48.6	17	0	0.14
2	vsUL Monroe	W73-0	-21.6	17/17	226	3	0	99.3	3	1	1.27
3	vsWisconsin	W38-14	-4.4	24/29	382	4	0	89.7	25	0	0.86
5	@Georgia	W24-21	24.1	24/38	276	2	0	90.1	12	1	0.59
6	vsVanderbilt	W30-14	20.3	23/31	340	2	1	80.1	-6	0	0.46
7	@Missouri	W27-24	14.4	23/31	200	3	0	77.6	7	0	0.34
8	vsTennessee	W37-20	15.0	19/29	253	2	0	89.0	8	0	0.51
9	@South Carolina	W29-22	5.9	24/43	253	2	0	77.9	13	0	0.32
11	vsLSU	W20-9	10.3	21/35	277	1	0	79.6	8	0	0.25
12	vsOklahoma	L21-23	18.3	28/42	326	1	1	64.4	-9	0	0.12
13	vsEastern Illinois	W56-0	—	11/16	147	0	2	47.1	17	0	0.40
14	@Auburn	W27-20	11.6	19/35	122	3	0	76.3	31	0	0.06
15	vsGeorgia	L7-28	24.1	19/39	212	1	1	19.9	-28	0	-0.05
20	vsIndiana	L3-38	32.4	12/16	67	0	0	60.6	17	0	—
20	@Oklahoma	W34-24	18.3	18/29	232	2	0	80.8	-22	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.2%

Passing plays

90.4%

Rushing plays

14.6%

Standard downs

47.8%

Passing downs

76.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 15 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.