#3Seth McGowan

RB·Kentucky·20251.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Seth McGowan is a Featured Back for Kentucky. Seth's 2025 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 182 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Seth McGowan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

725 Rush yards12 Rush TD165 Carries4.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions126 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume75
Explosiveness28
Consistency25
Receiving54

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency25th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 24).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsToledo	W24-16	6.0	18	78	4.3	1	—	—	—	0.12
2	vsOle Miss	L23-30	24.0	15	93	6.2	2	1	5	0	0.52
3	vsEastern Michigan	W48-23	-14.7	18	104	5.8	3	—	—	—	0.32
5	@South Carolina	L13-35	5.9	17	112	6.6	1	—	—	—	0.21
6	@Georgia	L14-35	24.1	11	44	4.0	0	3	21	0	0.03
8	vsTexas	L13-16	16.2	14	45	3.2	0	7	68	0	0.17
10	@Auburn	W10-3	11.6	21	53	2.5	0	2	1	0	-0.38
11	vsFlorida	W38-7	3.5	22	92	4.2	2	1	7	0	0.25
12	vsTennessee Tech	W42-10	—	17	72	4.2	3	2	10	0	0.41
13	@Vanderbilt	L17-45	20.3	10	27	2.7	0	1	4	0	-0.34
14	@Louisville	L0-41	12.4	2	5	2.5	0	2	10	0	-0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.1%

Passing plays

7.8%

Rushing plays

44.2%

Standard downs

31.7%

Passing downs

13.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.25
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.07 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.