#10Sam Hartman

QB·Wake Forest·2023 2022 2021 20205.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Sam Hartman is a 4-year Clutch Passer for Wake Forest. Sam's 2020 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 322 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Sam's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Hartman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

159/273 Comp/Att2224 Pass yards13 Pass TD5 INT58.2% Comp %

Rushing

29 Rush yards2 Rush TD63 Carries0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat10
Consistency81
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Virginia (SP+ 1).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsClemson	L13-37	26.1	11/21	182	0	0	-19	0	-0.01
3	@NC State	L42-45	0.0	23/36	236	1	0	-21	0	0.45
5	vsCampbell	W66-14	—	12/16	166	1	0	7	0	0.58
7	vsVirginia	W40-23	0.9	16/27	309	1	0	-12	0	0.65
8	vsVirginia Tech	W23-16	13.7	12/17	110	0	0	43	1	0.14
9	@Syracuse	W38-14	-9.8	19/33	250	1	0	10	0	0.37
11	@North Carolina	L53-59	18.0	29/45	429	4	0	2	1	0.47
15	@Louisville	L21-45	6.5	17/41	224	2	1	11	0	0.10
1	vsWisconsin	L28-42	26.5	20/37	318	3	4	8	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.7%

Passing plays

88.0%

Rushing plays

11.6%

Standard downs

38.3%

Passing downs

69.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.55
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / -0.05

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2023 · 47 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Wake Forest	5.5	0.432	—	144.0
2021	Wake Forest	11.8	0.556	+0.12	359.6
2022	Wake Forest	12.8	0.553	-0.00	319.9
2023	Notre Dame	8.9	0.650	+0.10	208.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.