#10Sam Hartman

QB·Notre Dame·2023 2022 2021 20208.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sam Hartman is a 4-year Dual-Threat QB for Notre Dame. Sam's 2023 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 334 plays — a above-average rate for the QB. Sam's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Hartman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

191/301 Comp/Att2689 Pass yards24 Pass TD8 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

123 Rush yards3 Rush TD45 Carries2.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency83
Volume100
Dual-Threat62
Consistency83
Clutch78

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (83th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.97 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Tennessee State.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
0	vsNavy	W42-3	-13.7	19/23	251	4	0	98.1	—	—	—
1	vsTennessee State	W56-3	—	14/17	194	2	0	95.9	14	1	0.97
2	@NC State	W45-24	7.4	15/24	286	4	0	69.5	-27	0	0.54
3	vsCentral Michigan	W41-17	-19.1	16/26	330	3	0	85.4	6	1	0.89
4	vsOhio State	L14-17	25.2	17/25	175	1	0	79.4	-2	0	0.20
5	@Duke	W21-14	9.4	15/30	222	0	0	64.8	23	0	0.36
6	@Louisville	L20-33	8.0	22/38	254	2	3	27.1	-12	0	0.10
7	vsUSC	W48-20	9.4	13/20	126	2	0	80.7	12	0	0.43
9	vsPittsburgh	W58-7	-7.3	18/25	288	0	2	70.7	-6	0	0.58
10	@Clemson	L23-31	10.5	13/30	146	0	2	39.6	68	1	0.06
12	vsWake Forest	W45-7	-7.9	21/29	277	4	0	94.0	—	—	0.65
13	@Stanford	W56-23	-11.9	8/14	140	2	1	70.8	47	0	0.67

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.7%

Passing plays

91.8%

Rushing plays

8.1%

Standard downs

38.0%

Passing downs

70.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.49 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2023 · 47 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Wake Forest	5.5	0.432	—	144.0
2021	Wake Forest	11.8	0.556	+0.12	359.6
2022	Wake Forest	12.8	0.553	-0.00	319.9
2023	Notre Dame	8.9	0.650	+0.10	208.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.