#2Reggie Corbin

RB·Illinois·20183.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Reggie Corbin is a Explosive Back for Illinois. Reggie's 2018 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 143 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Reggie Corbin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1085 Rush yards9 Rush TD128 Carries8.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions176 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency80
Volume51
Explosiveness100
Consistency45
Receiving59

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency45th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (80th percentile).
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Minnesota (SP+ 6).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsKent State	W31-24	-20.4	10	79	7.9	2	1	4	0	0.50
2	vsWestern Illinois	W34-14	—	15	63	4.2	1	1	14	0	0.36
3	vsSouth Florida	L19-25	-1.2	12	98	8.2	0	3	7	0	0.19
4	vsPenn State	L24-63	19.0	11	87	7.9	1	2	13	0	0.17
6	@Rutgers	W38-17	-12.3	11	137	12.5	1	—	—	—	0.44
7	vsPurdue	L7-46	6.5	6	20	3.3	0	1	52	0	0.01
8	@Wisconsin	L20-49	15.5	9	100	11.1	1	1	2	0	-0.12
9	@Maryland	L33-63	3.0	18	155	8.6	1	1	25	0	0.41
10	vsMinnesota	W55-31	6.3	13	213	16.4	2	—	—	—	1.00
11	@Nebraska	L35-54	5.4	9	59	6.6	0	1	34	0	0.07
12	vsIowa	L0-63	13.3	1	-4	-4.0	0	1	3	0	-0.57
13	@Northwestern	L16-24	1.9	13	78	6.0	0	4	22	0	-0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.7%

Passing plays

5.7%

Rushing plays

27.5%

Standard downs

20.8%

Passing downs

11.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.