#22Rawleigh Williams III

RB·Arkansas·20161.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Rawleigh Williams III is a Featured Back for Arkansas. Rawleigh's 2016 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 252 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rawleigh Williams III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1360 Rush yards12 Rush TD245 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions220 Rec yards1 Rec TD14.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume81
Explosiveness52
Consistency36
Receiving31

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency36th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.99 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Mississippi State (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsLouisiana Tech	W21-20	3.1	24	96	4.0	1	3	15	0	0.02
2	@TCU	W41-38	11.0	28	137	4.9	0	—	—	—	0.01
3	vsTexas State	W42-3	-25.5	19	121	6.4	2	—	—	—	0.46
4	vsTexas A&M	L24-45	12.0	17	79	4.6	1	1	-4	0	-0.35
5	vsAlcorn State	W52-10	—	13	126	9.7	0	—	—	—	0.42
6	vsAlabama	L30-49	31.7	12	46	3.8	1	2	51	0	0.42
7	vsOle Miss	W34-30	12.4	27	180	6.7	0	2	18	1	0.24
8	@Auburn	L3-56	15.3	13	22	1.7	0	2	19	0	-0.28
10	vsFlorida	W31-10	15.4	26	148	5.7	2	2	22	0	0.19
11	vsLSU	L10-38	25.3	13	49	3.8	0	1	54	0	0.13
12	@Mississippi State	W58-42	5.4	16	205	12.8	4	—	—	—	0.99
13	@Missouri	L24-28	-1.0	25	117	4.7	1	1	52	0	0.19
1	vsVirginia Tech	L24-35	15.2	12	34	2.8	0	1	-7	0	-0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.4%

Passing plays

4.8%

Rushing plays

50.6%

Standard downs

34.5%

Passing downs

15.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.92 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.