#7Nick Fitzgerald

QB·Mississippi State·2018 20164.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Nick Fitzgerald is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Mississippi State. Nick's 2018 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 469 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Fitzgerald's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

145/281 Comp/Att1772 Pass yards16 Pass TD9 INT51.6% Comp %

Rushing

1121 Rush yards13 Rush TD221 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat92
Consistency55
Clutch60

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.12 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Louisiana (SP+ -7).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	@Kansas State	W31-10	-0.5	11/27	154	2	1	159	0	0.34
3	vsLouisiana	W56-10	-6.9	14/21	243	2	0	107	4	0.79
4	@Kentucky	L7-28	13.1	16/32	150	0	1	20	1	-0.01
5	vsFlorida	L6-13	23.0	11/26	98	0	0	32	0	-0.09
6	vsAuburn	W23-9	23.6	9/17	69	0	1	195	2	0.22
8	@LSU	L3-19	24.2	8/24	59	0	4	131	0	-0.26
9	vsTexas A&M	W28-13	21.6	14/22	241	2	0	88	2	0.53
10	vsLouisiana Tech	W45-3	-6.9	17/28	243	4	0	107	0	0.51
11	@Alabama	L0-24	36.3	11/20	125	0	0	-23	0	-0.25
12	vsArkansas	W52-6	4.5	9/14	127	4	0	85	1	0.62
13	@Ole Miss	W35-3	9.8	11/18	111	1	0	117	2	0.38
1	vsIowa	L22-27	13.3	14/32	152	1	2	103	1	-0.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

64.4%

Passing plays

97.4%

Rushing plays

43.2%

Standard downs

59.2%

Passing downs

77.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.25
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.36

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Mississippi State	7.4	0.430	—	230.9
2018	Mississippi State	4.5	0.377	-0.05	199.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.