#7Nate Sudfeld

QB·Indiana·20158.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nate Sudfeld is a Dual-Threat QB for Indiana. Nate's 2015 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 445 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nate Sudfeld's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

247/412 Comp/Att3573 Pass yards27 Pass TD7 INT60.0% Comp %

Rushing

61 Rush yards5 Rush TD46 Carries1.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Dual-Threat89
Consistency81
Clutch86

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Purdue (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern Illinois	W48-47	—	19/32	349	1	0	85.9	46	0	0.56
2	vsFlorida International	W36-22	-16.6	19/33	234	1	1	64.2	-17	2	0.19
3	vsWestern Kentucky	W38-35	10.8	20/27	355	3	0	80.7	8	0	0.72
4	@Wake Forest	W31-24	-4.5	19/34	205	2	0	51.2	1	0	0.06
5	vsOhio State	L27-34	29.5	10/21	134	0	0	46.2	3	0	0.38
7	vsRutgers	L52-55	-10.1	32/42	464	4	2	90.3	-8	1	0.73
8	@Michigan State	L26-52	15.6	23/37	308	3	1	73.4	-16	0	0.43
10	vsIowa	L27-35	9.3	16/37	180	1	1	35.4	4	0	0.17
11	vsMichigan	L41-48	19.7	20/34	220	1	0	37.7	8	0	0.11
12	@Maryland	W47-28	-1.6	23/35	385	4	0	90.5	-1	1	0.73
13	@Purdue	W54-36	-7.4	18/29	350	4	0	96.7	13	1	0.96
1	vsDuke	L41-44	3.4	28/51	389	3	2	62.9	20	0	0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

44.5%

Passing plays

96.0%

Rushing plays

7.1%

Standard downs

39.7%

Passing downs

55.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.44 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.