#12Marquise Williams

QB·North Carolina·2015 20148.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Marquise Williams is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for North Carolina. Marquise's 2015 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 492 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marquise Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

219/357 Comp/Att3072 Pass yards24 Pass TD10 INT61.3% Comp %

Rushing

948 Rush yards13 Rush TD158 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency79
Clutch85

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Duke (SP+ 3).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Carolina	L13-17	3.4	19/31	232	1	3	15.1	9	0	-0.02
2	vsNorth Carolina A&T	W53-14	—	15/20	211	2	0	98.9	53	1	0.81
3	vsIllinois	W48-14	2.7	17/24	203	3	1	86.4	105	0	0.51
4	vsDelaware	W41-14	—	6/12	65	0	0	60.3	31	1	0.08
5	@Georgia Tech	W38-31	9.0	13/24	134	0	0	95.3	148	2	0.37
7	vsWake Forest	W50-14	-4.5	14/20	282	3	2	85.6	59	1	0.68
8	vsVirginia	W26-13	1.4	21/26	226	0	1	65.8	71	0	0.26
9	@Pittsburgh	W26-19	11.1	14/23	270	2	0	87.7	52	0	0.59
10	vsDuke	W66-31	3.4	23/35	494	4	0	92.8	30	1	0.87
11	vsMiami	W59-21	11.0	12/17	109	1	0	73.4	101	3	0.46
12	@Virginia Tech	W30-27	11.4	13/26	205	1	0	43.3	74	1	0.23
13	@NC State	W45-34	9.6	19/30	174	1	1	64.4	53	0	0.12
14	vsClemson	L37-45	24.0	11/33	224	3	1	27.0	81	1	0.14
1	vsBaylor	L38-49	19.5	22/36	243	3	1	83.3	81	2	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.6%

Passing plays

87.7%

Rushing plays

27.2%

Standard downs

49.8%

Passing downs

63.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.44

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	North Carolina	7.5	0.389	—	256.6
2015	North Carolina	8.3	0.476	+0.09	240.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.