#6Marcus McMaryion

QB·Fresno State·20188.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Marcus McMaryion is a Dual-Threat QB for Fresno State. Marcus's 2018 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 465 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marcus McMaryion's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

293/427 Comp/Att3628 Pass yards25 Pass TD5 INT68.6% Comp %

Rushing

296 Rush yards8 Rush TD71 Carries4.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch47

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Toledo (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsIdaho	W79-13	—	19/26	207	0	0	4	0	0.25
2	@Minnesota	L14-21	6.3	23/32	205	2	1	15	0	0.28
3	@UCLA	W38-14	-0.4	22/33	270	1	0	16	4	0.54
5	vsToledo	W49-27	2.0	24/31	368	4	1	15	1	0.87
6	@Nevada	W21-3	-0.5	20/28	241	2	0	-5	0	0.24
7	vsWyoming	W27-3	1.9	22/32	287	2	0	53	2	0.61
8	@New Mexico	W38-7	-9.5	20/30	280	3	0	12	0	0.64
9	vsHawai'i	W50-20	-10.4	21/31	284	4	0	8	0	0.67
10	@UNLV	W48-3	-11.1	26/35	274	2	1	39	0	0.47
11	@Boise State	L17-24	12.2	24/35	283	1	0	12	0	0.20
12	vsSan Diego State	W23-14	6.0	17/24	267	1	0	16	0	0.36
13	vsSan José State	W31-13	-17.1	20/29	317	2	0	30	0	0.57
14	@Boise State	W19-16	12.2	20/32	170	1	0	40	0	0.08
1	vsArizona State	W31-20	5.0	15/29	175	0	2	41	1	0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.1%

Passing plays

97.1%

Rushing plays

13.0%

Standard downs

43.5%

Passing downs

75.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.40
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.57

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.