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Fresno State

Fresno State Bulldogs

Pac-12·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1449#78
SP+
-7.6#99
FPI
-7.0
AP
NR
Next@ San José State · Wk 3Win prob 92%Model -19.3
Talent #88 (609.8)Recruiting class #7038% production returning

Roster · 118 players

FR 43SO 29JR 23SR 23
#PlayerPosClHtWt
3Khristian MartinQBSO6'4"230
7Jayden MandalQBJR6'0"205
13Jacob ChambersQBFR6'1"185
16Jonathan CraftQBFR6'1"175
17Deagan RoseQBFR6'2"220
2Rayshon LukeRBSR5'10"180
6Bryson DonelsonRBJR5'11"205
20Orlando GuevaraRBJR5'8"165
24Julius GillickRBFR5'11"215
27Tariq ThomasRBJR5'11"190
28Jhadis LuckeyRBFR5'8"190
31Brandon RamirezRBJR6'0"235
33Maddox MerrillRBFR5'7"190
34Jalen HarrisRBFR6'0"180
41Andrew ChavezRBJR6'0"195
0Ezekiel AvitWRJR6'2"200
1Jahlil McClainWRJR5'11"185
5Josiah FreemanWRSR6'4"200
10Jordan Malau'uluWRSO5'10"180
11Jayon FarrarWRSR5'11"185
18Isaiah DillonWRFR5'10"185
19Harold DuvallWRSO6'1"195
25Keynan CottonWRFR5'9"195
26Maxwell YoungWRFR6'0"180
29Malakai SumterWRFR6'2"185
39Tyler BeckerWRJR6'0"185
80Jaylen GarrisonWRSR5'10"190
81Xavier OwensWRFR6'2"170
82Darrian AndersonWRSR5'9"190
30Jace NixonTESO6'5"245
32Ryan LewisTEFR6'4"255
35Sebastien BoydellTEFR6'5"225
36Zane GerboTEFR6'4"235
37Sylas AustinTEFR6'3"230
42Brayden FordTEFR6'4"235
44Robert LuceroTEFR6'3"180
85Bryce McdanielTEFR6'3"215
86Gavin CorreiaTESO6'5"235
87Jake ApplegetTESR6'4"245
88Dallas Gaius-AnyaegbuTEFR6'5"235
89Brock LiumTEJR6'5"245
50Pat BarnettOLSR6'6"315
51Braylan HendersonOLSR6'3"290
55Marquise Thorpe-TaylorOLSO6'5"330
56Ben BakerOLSO6'1"280
58Efren SiuloaOLFR6'0"335
59Alex RiveraOLFR6'3"295
63Malcolm Polu Jr.OLFR6'3"325
65Jonah LeaupepeteleOLFR6'3"325
66Gino QuinonesOLSR6'3"295
67Bode StoddardOLSO6'7"300
68Ekene EbizieOLFR6'7"285
69Oscar WeigelOLSO6'4"290
71Rolan FullwoodOLSR6'6"320
72Edward FonuaOLSR6'3"315
73Marsel AkinsOLSO6'3"285
75Kyson Van VugtOLSR6'7"290
76Brayden WaltonOLSO6'8"325
79Ethan DasmannOLSO6'5"290
0Deijon LaffitteDLJR6'3"305
6Jahzon JacksDLSR6'4"260
8Martin OwusuDLJR6'3"310
9Merhauti XeperaDLSR6'3"278
11Dylan HampstenDLJR6'4"250
54Sione NoaDLSR6'3"241
55Brendan HuddlestonDLFR6'2"245
56Jairus SateleDLSR6'0"295
85Solomon BakerDLFR6'3"285
89Mordecai HinesDLJR6'4"290
91Auckland AsiataDLJR6'3"285
92Luke AverellDLSO6'4"260
93Bryson HarringtonDLSO6'1"280
94Micah MosleyDLSO6'4"230
95Maverick NoonanDLJR6'4"250
96Noah YehDLJR6'4"250
97Jake Plummer-FirstDLFR6'6"220
98Steven Scott IIIDLSO6'5"285
99Logan GoodspeedDLSO6'3"290
10K'vion ThunderbirdLBJR6'0"235
18Logan StudtLBSO6'1"220
25Justin JohnsonLBJR6'1"225
35Tytus KhajaviLBSO6'1"240
36Tommy NixLBSO6'1"220
40Jaydon SutkoLBFR6'0"227
42Lucas BlumlingLBFR6'1"225
43Niko BaumgartnerLBFR6'2"200
44Bo AusmusLBFR6'0"207
45Zephaniah SesayLBFR6'0"230
2Andre CobbDBSR6'1"185
3Jaden CarrilloDBJR6'0"185
4Ethan TierneyDBJR6'0"187
5Simeon HarrisDBSR6'0"190
7Loyall MouzonDBSO5'11"182
13Cam ColeDBSO5'11"180
17Jonavon DarringtonDBFR5'10"165
19Preston OkaforDBSO6'2"185
20RJ ReganDBSR6'0"195
23Sammie HunterDBSO5'10"185
24Croix StewartDBSR6'3"208
26Truly Bell IIIDBFR6'1"188
27Gerayas GrimesDBSO5'11"190
28Jomarion BriggsDBSR6'1"175
29Franklin LockardDBFR6'2"165
30Luke SanchezDBFR6'0"190
31Kiontre HarrisDBSO5'11"165
32Tyger CanalesDBFR6'0"190
33Taylor PowellDBSO6'4"205
34DaJhon HallDBFR5'11"170
37Ryan WilsonDBSR6'0"195
38Isaiah LuceroDBFR6'0"185
39Chase PerinoDBFR6'1"180
38Manaki WatanabePKSO6'1"175
40Ryan KobzeffPKFR5'10"175
45Connor TrippPKSO5'10"175
41Nick VerdugoPSR5'10"180
49Clay LawrencePJR6'3"180
52Ethan RossettiLSJR6'1"205
53Jack BaldiLSFR5'11"220

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
24.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
21.0
scoring defense
Differential
+3.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
329.0#112
Yards / play
6.1#63
Passing yards / game
213.0#85
Rushing yards / game
116.0#115
First downs / game
17.5#109
3rd down %
33.3%#104
4th down %
0.0%#114
Time of possession
26:11#123
Defense
Yards allowed / game
407.0#111
Yards / play allowed
6.1#116
Pass yards allowed / game
281.0#127
Rush yards allowed / game
126.0#77
3rd down % allowed
38.1%#83
Sacks
1#128
Tackles for loss
9#94
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#41
Takeaways
3#46
Giveaways
2#47
Penalties / game
3.5#11
Penalty yards / game
22.5#2

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Fresno State is in year 2 under Matt Entz. The strengths are defensive, led by 32nd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 107th on first and second down, and they are 106th at moving the ball on the ground.

Fresno State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #32
    projected
  • Defensestaying on schedule through the air
    #35
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensefirst and second down
    #107
    projected
  • Offensemoving the ball on the ground
    #106
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
6.1 – 4.9
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
5.1
of 9 games
Bowl odds
69%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
92%
vs San José State
Toughest
25%
vs San Diego State

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

12345678910
final winstallest bar = 30% chance
Likeliest finish 6-5 (30%)Bowl eligible 69% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBJayden Mandal, Khristian Martin
+20.6 EPA
WRJahlil McClain, Josiah Freeman +2
+17.3 EPA
TEJake Appleget, Gavin Correia
+3.5 EPA
RBRayshon Luke, Bryson Donelson +1
-6.1 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBJayden Mandal
~$844K
EPA +21.20.606/play35 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.0412th#122
Def0.269th#125
Explosiveness
Off1.3261st#54
Def1.0981st#27
Field position
Off73.180th#29
Def75.124th#105
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off3.7839th#84
Def2.8268th#45
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 2
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.7594th#9
Off · rush
-0.261st#137

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.261st#137
Def-0.2996th#7
Passing
Off0.7594th#9
Def0.732nd#135

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.29#129
2nd-level / open-field
0.45 / 0.21
Power / stuff (off)
33.3% / 27.3%
Havoc — total (def)
11.8%#126
Havoc — front 7 / DB
9.6% / 2.2%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.02
Def0.01
Pass downs
Off0.25
Def0.85

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.08#720.16#830.04#129
Defense0.01#870.66#1360.20#40

Elo Trajectory

@USCFinal
Elo rating 1532 → 1591+59 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.038th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1429th
  • Offense success rate35%9th
  • Defense success rate allowed47%9th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs37%7th
  • Offense success — passing downs25%21st
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs51%12th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs40%9th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.253rd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.180th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8917th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.161st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.512th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.746th
  • Offense highlight yards1.255th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.3779th
  • Offense power success0.211st
  • Defense power success allowed0.6850th
  • Offense stuff rate0.2512th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2883rd

Third down

  • Third down conversion38%34th
  • Third down distance faced5.493rd
  • Third down conversion allowed38%45th
  • Third down distance forced7.144th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.0813th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.0719th

Drives

  • Points per drive2.252nd
  • Points per drive allowed2.058th
  • Average starting field position2631st
  • Opponent starting field position2484th
  • Available yards gained54%63rd
  • Available yards allowed57%33rd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive79%48th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed63%93rd
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.749th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.238th
  • Three-and-out rate21%58th
  • Three-and-outs forced11%13th

CORE

  • CORE offense-0.1249th
  • CORE defense2.533rd
  • CORE overall-2.637th

Roster

  • Returning usage49%59th
  • Returning EPA10550th
  • Team talent composite61036th
  • Recruiting class rank70.050th
  • Recruiting class points18950th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.044#122 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.747#9
Rush EPA/play
-0.263#137
Explosiveness
1.315#54
Pts/opportunity
3.78#84
Success rate
38.6%

Pass efficiency edge: 1.010 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disciplined defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.257#125 · bottom 20%
Havoc rate (total)
11.8%#126
Front-7 havoc
9.6%
DB havoc
2.2%
Big play rate allowed
1.085#27
Success rate allowed
52.2%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

Points per game
24.5
Points allowed/game
21.0
Scoring margin/game
+3.5
Turnover margin
+1won 3 · lost 2
Production returning
38%
Talent rank (247)
#88

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE12thEXPLOSIVENESS61thFINISHING39thFIELD POS80thDEFENSE9thHAVOC9th50th100th
Offense
12th
Explosiveness
61th
Finishing
39th
Field Pos
80th
Defense
9th
Havoc
9th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-3.0
#80
Offense
-2.5
#86
Defense
+0.6
#75
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 19 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.162.00
Starting field positionown 26.2own 24.1
Available yards54.2%57.2%
Scoring opportunities79.0%63.2%
Points per opportunity2.733.17
Three-and-out rate21.1%10.5%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
50.0%
Expected, given the spots
49.4%
Over expected
+0.6
Fourth down vs peers
-15
Fourth down vs the model
-67
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Fresno State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Fresno State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
RiceSP+ -10.4
Off EPA/play +0.060Def EPA/play +0.229Elo 1196
Match
98%
Hawai'iSP+ -7.0
Off EPA/play +0.039Def EPA/play +0.202Elo 1426
Match
97%
UTEPSP+ -24.3
Off EPA/play -0.003Def EPA/play +0.286Elo 1163
Match
97%
UNLVSP+ +2.3
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.186Elo 1589
Match
96%
MarshallSP+ -14.4
Off EPA/play +0.039Def EPA/play +0.339Elo 1389
Match
95%
RutgersSP+ -3.6
Off EPA/play +0.124Def EPA/play +0.234Elo 1372
Match
95%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -24.9, #119 of 1282016: -23.9, #122 of 1282017: +7.1, #42 of 1302018: +17.7, #11 of 1302019: -0.5, #66 of 1302020: -5.0, #84 of 1242021: +9.9, #40 of 1302022: +5.4, #45 of 1312023: -3.7, #81 of 1332024: +1.1, #64 of 1342025: -3.4, #73 of 1362026: -3.0, #80 of 138
20152026
Now -3.0 · #80 of 138Best +17.7 in 2018Worst -24.9 in 2015

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-10-0
0%
0.0-0.0
20259-45-3
69%
8.0+1.0
20246-74-3
46%
6.5-0.5
20239-44-4
69%
6.2+2.8
202210-48-1
71%
8.4+1.6
202110-36-2
77%
8.3+1.7
20203-33-3
50%
3.4-0.4
20194-82-6
33%
6.4-2.4
201812-28-1
86%
11.9+0.1
201710-47-2
71%
9.9+0.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.8%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-1 so far, projected to finish 5.7-5.4. Wins the Pac-12 in 6.4%.

If they finish with…

60%
1 loss
15%
2 losses
0.2%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

Win out and it is 60%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 1.8 points since preseason — lost 0-39 to USC against an expected margin of −22, so −17.5 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 60% where the average Pac-12 team is 80%.
  • The Pac-12 takes 0.25 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.8% of seasons, having won their league in 95% of those.

Fresno State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk6vs Boise State2.7
  • wk7at San Diego State1.8
  • wk10at Utah State1.7
  • wk5at Washington State1.6
  • wk11at Texas State1.4
  • wk9vs Oregon State1.4

Who to root for

Games Fresno State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk9Oregon over Northwestern0.3
  • wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.3
  • wk5Utah State over Boise State0.3
  • wk10Southern Miss over James Madison0.3
  • wk4Old Dominion over James Madison0.3
  • wk10North Carolina over UConn0.3
The full playoff picture →

Pac-12

0-0 in league play, projected 3.2-3.85 of 8 by title odds
6.4%
Wins the Pac-12
18%
Reaches the title game

The Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk6Boise State at Fresno State14.6
  • wk7Fresno State at San Diego State10.6
  • wk10Fresno State at Utah State9.0
  • wk9Oregon State at Fresno State8.6

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →

If not the playoff, then

54%
Bowl eligible
53%
Placed in a bowl
0.8%
In the playoff
46%
Season over in November

Fresno State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Holiday Bowl16%
  • Sun Bowl14%
  • Alamo Bowl10%
  • Las Vegas Bowl9.2%
  • Independence Bowl2.9%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Fresno State a player since 2010 — 26 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Fresno State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Central CatholicPA50
Bishop GormanNV40
Junipero SerraCA40
LincolnCA40
Palo AltoCA22
CrespiCA20
Oak RidgeFL20
Rancho CucamongaCA20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.