#10Mac Jones

QB·Alabama·202019.2 pts line value1st Round

Mac Jones is a Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Mac's 2020 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 401 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mac Jones's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

311/402 Comp/Att4500 Pass yards41 Pass TD4 INT77.4% Comp %

Rushing

16 Rush yards1 Rush TD35 Carries0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency98
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency93
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency93th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸13 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Texas A&M (SP+ 16).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jayden Daniels	LSU	2023	461	0.783	17.5	360.8
C.J. Stroud	Ohio State	2022	476	0.746	17.6	355.2
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2016	484	0.854	22.5	413.2
C.J. Stroud	Ohio State	2021	493	0.890	22.4	438.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
4	@Missouri	W38-19	-1.0	18/24	249	2	0	4	0	0.76
5	vsTexas A&M	W52-24	16.2	20/27	435	4	1	-2	0	0.95
6	@Ole Miss	W63-48	4.8	28/32	417	2	0	1	0	0.88
7	vsGeorgia	W41-24	19.1	24/32	417	4	1	-20	0	0.64
8	@Tennessee	W48-17	0.9	25/31	387	0	0	4	1	0.54
9	vsMississippi State	W41-0	-1.4	24/31	291	4	0	6	0	0.51
12	vsKentucky	W63-3	2.2	16/24	230	2	1	—	—	0.52
13	vsAuburn	W42-13	12.6	18/26	302	5	0	6	0	0.83
14	@LSU	W55-17	6.0	20/28	385	4	0	—	—	0.77
15	@Arkansas	W52-3	1.6	24/29	208	0	0	2	0	0.43
16	vsFlorida	W52-46	19.8	33/43	418	5	1	-8	0	0.52
1	vsNotre Dame	W31-14	21.0	25/30	297	4	0	12	0	0.75
1	vsOhio State	W52-24	28.4	36/45	464	5	0	11	0	0.75

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.8%

Passing plays

93.7%

Rushing plays

5.3%

Standard downs

45.4%

Passing downs

59.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.54
Passing downs: 1.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.72 / 0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.