Leonard Fournette is a 2-year Featured Back for LSU. Leonard's 2015 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 330 plays — a above-average rate for the RB. A five-star recruit in the class of 2014, Leonard has lived up to his recruiting pedigree.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Leonard Fournette's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9996
- National rank
- #1
- High school
- St. Augustine
- Hometown
- New Orleans, LA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2015 Production
Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency75
- Volume100
- Explosiveness70
- Consistency71
- Receiving48
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (75th percentile).
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Auburn (SP+ 15).
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.27
- Passing downs
- 0.27
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.34 / 0.27
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.