#30Chuba Hubbard

RB·Oklahoma State·2020 20198.2 pts line value1st Round

Chuba Hubbard is a 2-year Featured Back for Oklahoma State. Chuba's 2019 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 354 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chuba Hubbard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

2094 Rush yards21 Rush TD328 Carries6.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

23 Receptions198 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.6 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns42 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency90
Volume100
Explosiveness68
Consistency78
Receiving38

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Oregon State (SP+ -1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ashton Jeanty	Boise State	2024	393	0.430	8.4	169.0
Devin Singletary	Florida Atlantic	2017	319	0.500	8.4	159.5
J.K. Dobbins	Ohio State	2019	318	0.510	8.4	162.2
Ezekiel Elliott	Ohio State	2015	311	0.480	8.6	149.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2019	338	0.420	6.8	142.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Oregon State	W52-36	-0.7	26	221	8.5	3	—	—	—	0.65
2	vsMcNeese	W56-14	—	8	44	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.51
3	@Tulsa	W40-21	-2.5	32	256	8.0	3	—	—	—	0.36
4	@Texas	L30-36	12.0	37	121	3.3	2	2	14	0	0.02
5	vsKansas State	W26-13	6.0	25	296	11.8	1	2	7	0	0.53
6	@Texas Tech	L35-45	2.7	34	156	4.6	3	1	1	0	0.12
8	vsBaylor	L27-45	17.8	32	171	5.3	2	1	2	0	0.12
9	@Iowa State	W34-27	12.6	22	116	5.3	1	2	11	0	-0.11
10	vsTCU	W34-27	6.7	20	223	11.2	2	1	5	0	0.45
12	vsKansas	W31-13	-9.8	23	122	5.3	2	2	42	0	0.52
13	@West Virginia	W20-13	-7.0	26	106	4.1	0	7	88	0	0.17
14	vsOklahoma	L16-34	22.9	24	104	4.3	1	3	13	0	0.23
1	vsTexas A&M	L21-24	15.0	19	158	8.3	0	2	15	0	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.9%

Passing plays

7.9%

Rushing plays

60.6%

Standard downs

44.2%

Passing downs

23.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.17 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Oklahoma State	8.2	0.450	—	154.4
2020	Oklahoma State	1.6	0.290	-0.16	40.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.