Leonard Fournette is a 2-year Committee Back for LSU. Leonard's 2014 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 174 plays — a developing rate for the RB. A five-star recruit in the class of 2014, Leonard has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Leonard Fournette's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9996
- National rank
- #1
- High school
- St. Augustine
- Hometown
- New Orleans, LA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2014 Production
Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency10
- Volume62
- Explosiveness50
- Consistency4
- Receiving26
Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Notre Dame (SP+ 11).
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.14
- Passing downs
- 0.23
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.83 / 0.12
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.