#21Kerryon Johnson

RB·Auburn·20173.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kerryon Johnson is a Featured Back for Auburn. Kerryon's 2017 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 306 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kerryon Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1391 Rush yards18 Rush TD285 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions194 Rec yards2 Rec TD8.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Explosiveness38
Consistency61
Receiving42

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.50 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 12).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia Southern	W41-7	-15.8	16	136	8.5	1	—	—	—	0.25
4	@Missouri	W51-14	11.1	18	48	2.7	5	2	15	0	0.41
5	vsMississippi State	W49-10	16.0	23	116	5.0	3	1	3	0	0.09
6	vsOle Miss	W44-23	11.6	28	204	7.3	3	2	23	0	0.50
7	@LSU	L23-27	21.1	31	156	5.0	1	1	1	0	0.14
8	@Arkansas	W52-20	2.1	21	63	3.0	1	2	15	0	-0.25
10	@Texas A&M	W42-27	9.4	29	145	5.0	1	5	29	1	0.31
11	vsGeorgia	W40-17	26.7	32	167	5.2	0	2	66	1	0.31
12	vsUL Monroe	W42-14	-12.9	22	137	6.2	1	3	14	0	0.44
13	vsAlabama	W26-14	33.5	30	104	3.5	1	3	21	0	0.02
14	vsGeorgia	L7-28	26.7	13	44	3.4	0	2	1	0	-0.14
1	vsUCF	L27-34	14.1	22	71	3.2	1	1	6	0	0.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.1%

Passing plays

8.2%

Rushing plays

53.7%

Standard downs

42.0%

Passing downs

17.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.01
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.