#5Jonathan Ward

RB·Central Michigan·20192.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jonathan Ward is a Pass-Catching Back for Central Michigan. Jonathan's 2019 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 196 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jonathan Ward's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1108 Rush yards15 Rush TD183 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

34 Receptions329 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume73
Explosiveness62
Consistency43
Receiving71

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency43th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -9).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsUAlbany	W38-21	—	22	158	7.2	2	3	53	0	0.35
2	@Wisconsin	L0-61	20.3	1	3	3.0	0	1	9	0	-0.22
5	@Western Michigan	L15-31	-4.9	19	107	5.6	0	2	21	0	0.21
6	vsEastern Michigan	W42-16	-8.6	12	132	11.0	2	3	73	1	0.83
7	vsNew Mexico State	W42-28	-22.0	18	131	7.3	1	4	36	0	-0.09
8	@Bowling Green	W38-20	-27.5	21	130	6.2	3	3	12	0	0.36
9	@Buffalo	L20-43	-2.0	14	64	4.6	1	5	39	0	-0.02
10	vsNorthern Illinois	W48-10	-13.9	20	138	6.9	1	3	11	0	—
12	@Ball State	W45-44	-4.5	24	105	4.4	4	4	30	0	0.38
14	vsToledo	W49-7	-13.7	13	88	6.8	1	—	—	—	0.50
15	vsMiami (OH)	L21-26	-9.2	10	26	2.6	0	5	38	0	-0.18
1	vsSan Diego State	L11-48	2.0	9	26	2.9	0	1	7	0	-0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.7%

Passing plays

10.1%

Rushing plays

41.1%

Standard downs

31.2%

Passing downs

12.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.01
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.14 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.