#2Joe Fagnano

QB·UConn·20258.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Joe Fagnano is a Dual-Threat QB for UConn. Joe's 2025 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 440 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joe Fagnano's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

284/412 Comp/Att3441 Pass yards28 Pass TD1 INT68.9% Comp %

Rushing

131 Rush yards3 Rush TD47 Carries2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency80
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency87
Clutch84

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (80th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Florida International (SP+ -11).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCentral Connecticut	W59-13	—	18/25	260	3	0	84.7	0	1	0.57
2	@Syracuse	L20-27	-13.1	24/43	259	0	0	38.2	-10	0	0.21
3	@Delaware	L41-44	-10.9	28/38	346	2	0	80.9	-4	0	0.72
4	vsBall State	W31-25	-23.0	20/30	181	1	0	54.2	15	0	0.24
5	@Buffalo	W20-17	-7.5	19/31	155	1	0	67.5	64	0	0.27
6	vsFlorida International	W51-10	-10.5	22/28	355	4	0	88.9	4	0	0.87
8	@Boston College	W38-23	-8.5	23/31	362	4	0	90.4	25	1	0.47
9	@Rice	L34-37	-14.8	32/48	344	3	0	59.7	10	0	0.30
10	vsUAB	W38-19	-15.8	23/30	267	4	0	71.6	-13	0	0.56
11	vsDuke	W37-34	6.6	27/39	311	3	0	75.3	51	0	0.43
12	vsAir Force	W26-16	-3.2	15/23	155	0	1	48.6	10	1	0.36
13	@Florida Atlantic	W48-45	-8.7	33/46	446	3	0	70.6	-21	0	0.59

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.5%

Passing plays

95.0%

Rushing plays

10.2%

Standard downs

50.5%

Passing downs

69.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.60
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.