@ Southern Miss · Wk 3Win prob 32%Model +7.4Schedule & Results
MDMarylandL14-38✓Wk 3@USMSouthern Miss+7.432%Wk 4@
M-OHMiami (OH)+2.743%Wk 5vs
SYRSyracuse-0.250%Wk 6@
TEMTemple+3.841%Wk 8vs
MASSMassachusetts-29.098%Wk 9@
AFAir Force+7.332%Wk 10vs
UNCNorth Carolina-7.368%Wk 11vs
JMUJames Madison+2.943%Wk 12vs
ODUOld Dominion-1.653%Wk 13@
WYOWyoming-2.456%Team Leaders
Kalieb OsbornePassing421 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT- Kalieb OsborneRushing120 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 avg
Javon BrownReceiving6 rec · 92 yds · 1 TD
Zion ParetTackles15 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on UConn
All news →UConn's Short-yardage game meets the wrong defense
Kalieb Osborne produced 11 of UConn's 16 explosive plays
Roster · 114 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jake Merklinger | QB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Savannah, GA |
| 7 | Kalieb Osborne | QB | FR | 6'3" | 204 | Pontiac, MI |
| 12 | Tucker McDonald | QB | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Holden, MA |
| 13 | Bo Polston | QB | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 18 | Tyler Smith | QB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Shelton, CT |
| 3 | Kenji Christian | RB | JR | 6'2" | 207 | Birmingham, AL |
| 6 | Trey Cornist | RB | SO | 5'11" | 210 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 20 | Shawn Simeon | RB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Naples, FL |
| 22 | Jaden Hart | RB | SO | 5'11" | 210 | Michigan City, IN |
| 23 | Cyncir Bowers | RB | SO | 5'10" | 191 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 24 | Dashun Reeder | RB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Greenville, SC |
| 26 | Soren Rief | RB | SO | 6'0" | 220 | Killingly, CT |
| 0 | Ky Wilson | WR | JR | 5'9" | 180 | Farrell, PA |
| 2 | Jediyah Willoughby | WR | SO | 6'1" | 202 | Fairburn, GA |
| 5 | Shamar Porter | WR | JR | 6'3" | 210 | Nashville, TN |
| 8 | Zy'marion Lang | WR | SO | 6'3" | 180 | Sarasota, FL |
| 9 | Julian Allen | WR | SO | 6'1" | 188 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 11 | Ryder Treadway | WR | FR | 6'3" | 193 | Frisco, TX |
| 14 | Emanuel Ross | WR | FR | 6'2" | 202 | Jackson, NJ |
| 15 | Cam Abshire | WR | JR | 6'4" | 185 | Roanoke, VA |
| 16 | Kamren Flowers | WR | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Detroit, MI |
| 17 | Teddy Williams | WR | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Portland, CT |
| 19 | Javon Brown | WR | FR | 6'4" | 198 | Williston, FL |
| 21 | Raymond Liggins III | WR | FR | 5'9" | 162 | Chicago, IL |
| 25 | Daniel Rose | WR | SO | 5'10" | 150 | Lincoln, RI |
| 81 | Logan Barnes | WR | FR | 6'4" | 180 | Marion, IN |
| 82 | Logan Burbank | WR | FR | 6'0" | 173 | Middletown, NJ |
| 84 | Johnny Gingeruha | WR | FR | 5'8" | 173 | West Springfield, MA |
| 85 | Drew Kron | WR | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Hebron, CT |
| 42 | Mike Burton | TE | SR | 6'2" | 250 | Wilton, CT |
| 80 | Alex Godavitarne | TE | JR | 6'4" | 235 | Washington, DC |
| 83 | Xavier Watson | TE | SO | 6'4" | 210 | Waverly, NY |
| 86 | Matt Ragan | TE | JR | 6'5" | 246 | Westboro, MA |
| 87 | Clemens Richter | TE | SO | 6'6" | 240 | Dresden |
| 88 | Troy Walson | TE | FR | 6'4" | 226 | Williamsburg, VA |
| 89 | Jackson Mangham | TE | FR | 6'7" | 244 | Columbus, OH |
| 51 | Joe McGann | OL | SO | 6'6" | 290 | Lagrangeville, NY |
| 52 | Deron McLaughlin | OL | SO | 6'4" | 270 | Park Ridge, NJ |
| 53 | Christos Zigoumis | OL | SO | 6'6" | 240 | Ottawa, ON |
| 55 | Fred Johnson | OL | SO | 6'5" | 290 | Cleveland, OH |
| 56 | Tamarus Walker | OL | JR | 6'3" | 320 | Baltimore, MD |
| 58 | Terrence Moore | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Massillon, OH |
| 59 | Finn Wilkins | OL | SO | 6'5" | 315 | Herndon, VA |
| 60 | Nate Benedict | OL | FR | 5'10" | 200 | Madison, AL |
| 62 | Ben Mulholland | OL | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Cypress, TX |
| 64 | Michael Marini | OL | FR | 6'0" | 295 | Norwalk, CT |
| 67 | Hannes Hammer | OL | FR | 6'7" | 313 | Cologne |
| 69 | Ty Chan | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Lowell, MA |
| 71 | Owen Winder | OL | FR | 6'7" | 327 | Dexter, MI |
| 73 | Raphael Greene-Nyarko | OL | FR | 6'6" | 340 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 74 | Nathan Pahanich | OL | FR | 6'4" | 291 | Princeton, NJ |
| 75 | Hill Greenlee | OL | FR | 6'9" | 295 | Dallas, TX |
| 76 | Dominic Rivera | OL | SO | 6'8" | 325 | Olmsted Falls, OH |
| 78 | Isiah Switzer | OL | FR | 6'6" | 285 | Cleveland, OH |
| 79 | Christian Richter | OL | JR | 6'6" | 300 | Baltimore, MD |
| 25 | Odera Orizu | DE | SO | 6'4" | 256 | Charlotte, NC |
| 52 | Joshua Mickens | DE | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 97 | Chamberlain Campbell | DE | SO | 6'6" | 240 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 17 | Shamar Riser-Pressley | EDGE | FR | 6'6" | 271 | Detroit, MI |
| 91 | Mateo Kipke | EDGE | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Dexter, MI |
| 96 | Makijah Latiker | EDGE | FR | 6'6" | 250 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 2 | Tahjae Mullix | DL | SR | 6'0" | 282 | Covington, GA |
| 11 | Avery Dunn | DL | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Shaker Heights, OH |
| 15 | Anas Luqman | DL | JR | 6'4" | 260 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 55 | Andrew Laurich | DL | SO | 6'3" | 295 | Yorkville, IL |
| 84 | Eddie Dresch | DL | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Ephrata, PA |
| 92 | Rodarion Tellez | DL | FR | 6'1" | 252 | Miami, FL |
| 94 | Matt Hoffman | DL | SR | 6'5" | 250 | Cheltenham, PA |
| 95 | Melvin Hills III | DL | FR | 6'3" | 302 | New Iberia, LA |
| 3 | Esean Carter | DT | SR | 6'2" | 285 | Detroit, MI |
| 14 | Desmond Aladuge | DT | SO | 6'4" | 285 | Milford, DE |
| 93 | DJ Pouncy | DT | FR | 5'11" | 311 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 0 | K'Von Sherman | LB | JR | 6'2" | 236 | Pearland, TX |
| 5 | Rickey Williams | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Akron, OH |
| 9 | Zakaih Saez | LB | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Lake Worth, FL |
| 19 | Ethan Hogg | LB | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Glenview, IL |
| 20 | Luke Murphy | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Massillon, OH |
| 27 | Terris Dudley | LB | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Hilliard, OH |
| 29 | Lewenski Ydore | LB | SO | 6'2" | 220 | Miami, FL |
| 30 | Charles Johnson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 205 | King George, VA |
| 37 | Hayden Pegg | LB | SO | 6'3" | 200 | Malvern, PA |
| 39 | Charlie O'Connor | LB | SO | 6'4" | 215 | New Canaan, CT |
| 40 | Tyrique Harris | LB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 41 | Will Lewis | LB | FR | 6'1" | 208 | Bloomfield Hills, MI |
| 44 | John Lista | LB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Fair Haven, NJ |
| 47 | Jayden Jones | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Millville, NJ |
| 99 | James Tilus | LB | FR | 6'1" | 234 | Auburndale, FL |
| 4 | Braedyn Moore | DB | SO | 6'2" | 204 | Hamilton, OH |
| 6 | Renick Dorilas | DB | FR | 5'11" | 168 | Newark, NJ |
| 7 | Tyler McKinstry | DB | SO | 5'9" | 182 | Atlanta, GA |
| 8 | CJ Bell Jr. | DB | FR | 6'1" | 186 | Mansfield, MA |
| 10 | Jayden Davis | DB | JR | 6'1" | 192 | Fresno, CA |
| 12 | Saxton Suchanic | DB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | York, PA |
| 13 | Jayden Price | DB | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Seven Fields, PA |
| 17 | Jalil Martin | DB | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Chicago, IL |
| 18 | Kylish Hicks | DB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Baltimore, MD |
| 21 | Tracy Revels | DB | SO | 6'1" | 184 | Texarkana, TX |
| 22 | Axavier Bridges-Brooks | DB | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 23 | Steve Miller | DB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Greensboro, GA |
| 24 | Zion Paret | DB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Miami, FL |
| 26 | Shmar Akande | DB | FR | 6'1" | 186 | Pembroke Pines, FL |
| 28 | Elijah Whitaker | DB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Griffin, GA |
| 29 | Jalen Brown | DB | SO | 5'11" | 174 | Orlando, FL |
| 31 | Cason Dash | DB | FR | 6'1" | 191 | Lakeland, FL |
| 32 | Martece Smith | DB | FR | 6'1" | 187 | Chicago, IL |
| 33 | Carter Boskovich | DB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 33 | Grant Blascak | DB | FR | 6'1" | 204 | Medina, OH |
| 36 | Tyler Marescot | DB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Armonk, NY |
| 9 | Jack O'Connor | PK | FR | 6'0" | 177 | Elmhurst, IL |
| 89 | Mike Baker | PK | FR | 5'9" | 185 | Wilmette, IL |
| 35 | Spencer Sullins | P | FR | 6'3" | 199 | Athens, TN |
| 49 | Tommy Warner | P | FR | 6'3" | 199 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 24 | Tashi Crofut | LS | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 59 | David LaGanga | LS | JR | 6'0" | 212 | Staten Island, NY |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
UConn is in year 1 under Jason Candle, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 19th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 137th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UConn has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#19projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#137projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#137projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#136projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.56#118
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.06 / 1.28
- Power / stuff (off)
- 80.0% / 22.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.2%#78
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.3% / 7.9%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.02#91 | 0.41#35 | 0.49#76 |
| Defense | 0.00#83 | 0.07#58 | 0.49#91 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3274th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0558th
- Offense success rate41%34th
- Defense success rate allowed37%51st
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs44%26th
- Offense success — passing downs33%54th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs43%49th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs32%26th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.593rd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.174th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.285th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.588th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.719th
- Defense line yards allowed2.558th
- Offense highlight yards1.567th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.1791st
- Offense power success0.6736th
- Defense power success allowed0.5866th
- Offense stuff rate0.2225th
- Defense stuff rate0.2253rd
Third down
- Third down conversion41%43rd
- Third down distance faced8.013th
- Third down conversion allowed44%26th
- Third down distance forced7.663rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1362nd
- Net success rate — second half-0.0228th
Drives
- Points per drive1.328th
- Points per drive allowed3.518th
- Average starting field position2524th
- Opponent starting field position3711th
- Available yards gained31%17th
- Available yards allowed63%18th
- Scoring opportunities per drive64%14th
- Scoring opportunities allowed91%24th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.029th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.823rd
- Three-and-out rate36%26th
- Three-and-outs forced18%33rd
Roster
- Returning usage3%1st
- Returning EPA11.46th
- Team talent composite65347th
- Recruiting class rank11020th
- Recruiting class points17220th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.428 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 45.2%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.0%
- Over expected
- -6.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- +8
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. UConn is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to UConn in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 69% | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 1-0 | 69% | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 1-0 | 25% | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 46% | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 1-11 | 0-0 | 8% | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 2.7 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 8% | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 3.0 | -0.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.1-6.9.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 0%. Running the table still leaves it to the committee.
down 0.0 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 0% where the average FBS Independents team is 99%.
If not the playoff, then
UConn is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 18% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Fenway Bowl7.0%
- Xbox Bowl3.8%
- Birmingham Bowl2.8%
- Military Bowl2.6%
- Pinstripe Bowl1.1%
- 68 Ventures Bowl1.0%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 3 have sent UConn a player since 2010 — 4 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of UConn's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.