vs Eastern Michigan · Wk 3Win prob 79%Model -13.1Schedule & Results
NDNotre DameL13-41✓Wk 2vsWEILWestern IllinoisW36-9✓Wk 3vsEMUEastern Michigan-13.179%Wk 4@
PSUPenn State+8.330%Wk 5vs
MSUMichigan State-10.575%Wk 7@
UCLAUCLA+7.831%Wk 8vs
USCUSC+20.77%Wk 9@
IOWAIowa+9.228%Wk 10vs
RUTGRutgers-4.161%Wk 11@
MDMaryland+6.933%Wk 12@
PURPurdue+1.745%Wk 13vs
MINNMinnesota+5.436%Team Leaders
Colton JosephPassing390 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Abu Sama IIIRushing156 yds · 1 TD · 6.8 avg
Tyrell HenryReceiving8 rec · 133 yds · 0 TD
Cooper CatalanoTackles22 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Wisconsin
All news →Notre Dame's 20.5 isn't about the quarterbacks
Roster · 116 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colton Joseph | QB | JR | 6'2" | 212 | Newport Beach, CA |
| 5 | Carter Smith | QB | FR | 6'4" | 208 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 8 | Deuce Adams | QB | SO | 6'2" | 204 | Austin, TX |
| 10 | Ryan Hopkins | QB | FR | 6'3" | 201 | Newport Beach, CA |
| 18 | Danny O'Neil | QB | JR | 6'0" | 205 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 3 | Abu Sama III | RB | SR | 5'11" | 211 | Des Moines, IA |
| 6 | Darrion Dupree | RB | JR | 5'11" | 214 | Chicago, IL |
| 15 | Nate Palmer | RB | SO | 5'10" | 205 | Decatur, TX |
| 20 | Juju Pope | RB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Pope, MS |
| 21 | Bryan Jackson II | RB | JR | 6'2" | 240 | McKinney, TX |
| 32 | Harrison Bortolotti | RB | SO | 5'9" | 202 | Whitefish Bay, WI |
| 38 | Mason Lane | RB | SO | 6'1" | 222 | Lodi, WI |
| 41 | McCoy Smith | FB | FR | 5'11" | 231 | Waunakee, WI |
| 0 | Tyrell Henry | WR | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Roseville, MI |
| 2 | Chris Brooks Jr. | WR | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Saint Louis, MO |
| 7 | Shamar Rigby | WR | JR | 6'4" | 196 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 9 | Jaylon Domingeaux | WR | SR | 6'3" | 208 | Lafayette, LA |
| 11 | Kash Brock | WR | FR | 6'3" | 184 | Chandler, AZ |
| 12 | Zion Kearney | WR | JR | 6'3" | 215 | Fresno, TX |
| 13 | Eugene Hilton Jr. | WR | SO | 6'2" | 206 | Zionsville, IN |
| 14 | Keeyshawn Tabuteau | WR | FR | 5'11" | 187 | Montreal, PQ |
| 16 | Malachi Coleman | WR | JR | 6'5" | 205 | Lincoln, NE |
| 19 | Langdon Nordgaard | WR | SO | 6'3" | 208 | De Pere, WI |
| 22 | Dorsett Stecker | WR | FR | 5'9" | 165 | Newport Beach, CA |
| 24 | Zion Legree | WR | FR | 5'11" | 202 | Pensacola, FL |
| 26 | Eli Adams | WR | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Austin, TX |
| 81 | Mason Kelley | WR | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Mukwonago, WI |
| 87 | Jackson McGohan | WR | JR | 6'4" | 224 | Miamisburg, OH |
| 17 | Nizyi Davis | TE | FR | 6'5" | 235 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 37 | Treve Stoffel | TE | FR | 6'4" | 214 | Mosinee, WI |
| 42 | Tyler Jansey | TE | JR | 6'1" | 236 | Batavia, IL |
| 49 | Aydon Fickell | TE | FR | 6'4" | 242 | Madison, WI |
| 82 | Emmett Bork | TE | FR | 6'6" | 255 | Oconomowoc, WI |
| 84 | Ryan Schwendeman | TE | SR | 6'4" | 254 | O' Fallon, MO |
| 85 | Grant Stec | TE | SO | 6'6" | 260 | Sleepy Hollow, IL |
| 86 | Jack Sievers | TE | FR | 6'4" | 248 | Everett, WA |
| 89 | Jacob Harris | TE | JR | 6'6" | 270 | Columbus, OH |
| 50 | Ryan Cory | OL | SO | 6'4" | 311 | Gibsonia, PA |
| 51 | Austin Kawecki | OL | SR | 6'4" | 311 | Frisco, TX |
| 52 | Hardy Watts | OL | FR | 6'5" | 315 | Boston, MA |
| 53 | Cam Clark | OL | FR | 6'7" | 300 | Dexter, MI |
| 54 | Brady Bekkenhuis | OL | FR | 6'7" | 310 | Arlington, MA |
| 55 | Kevin Heywood | OL | SO | 6'9" | 318 | Limerick, PA |
| 58 | Michael Roeske | OL | FR | 6'8" | 328 | Wautoma, WI |
| 60 | Nolan Davenport | OL | FR | 6'6" | 303 | Massillon, OH |
| 64 | Evan Brown | OL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 65 | Aiden Dirksen | OL | FR | 6'6" | 338 | Green Bay, WI |
| 70 | Barrett Nelson | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Stoughton, WI |
| 71 | PJ Wilkins | OL | JR | 6'6" | 340 | Atlanta, GA |
| 72 | Lucas Simmons-Johansson | OL | JR | 6'7" | 323 | Stockholm |
| 73 | Blake Cherry | OL | SO | 6'5" | 308 | Claremore, OK |
| 75 | Emerson Mandell | OL | SO | 6'5" | 324 | Mounds View, MN |
| 76 | Stylz Blackmon | OL | JR | 6'4" | 316 | Grain Valley, MO |
| 77 | Peyton Lange | OL | JR | 6'9" | 345 | Minneapolis, MN |
| 78 | Colin Cubberly | OL | SO | 6'6" | 324 | LaGrange, NY |
| 79 | Logan Powell | OL | FR | 6'5" | 303 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 30 | Charles Perkins | DL | SR | 6'2" | 330 | Memphis, TN |
| 76 | Dillan Johnson | DL | JR | 6'2" | 316 | Plainfield, IL |
| 85 | Hayden Metzger | DL | SO | 6'4" | 280 | Pewaukee, WI |
| 90 | Djidjou Bah | DL | FR | 6'3" | 265 | Memphis, TN |
| 91 | Hammond Russell IV | DL | SR | 6'4" | 314 | Columbus, OH |
| 92 | Nolan Vils | DL | JR | 6'2" | 304 | Prairie Du Sac, WI |
| 93 | DeNigel Cooper | DL | SO | 6'3" | 265 | Kingsland, GA |
| 94 | Xavier Ukponu | DL | FR | 6'3" | 318 | Denton, TX |
| 95 | Jacob Anderson | DL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Davis, IL |
| 96 | Arthur Scott III | DL | FR | 6'3" | 306 | Streetsboro, OH |
| 97 | Junior Poyser | DL | JR | 6'2" | 328 | Brampton, ON |
| 98 | Torin Pettaway | DL | FR | 6'5" | 298 | Middleton, WI |
| 0 | Justus Boone | LB | SR | 6'5" | 280 | Sumter, SC |
| 7 | Tyreese Fearbry | LB | SR | 6'4" | 252 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 8 | Mason Posa | LB | SO | 6'3" | 237 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 12 | Nicolas Clayton | LB | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Gainesville, FL |
| 14 | Liam Danitz | LB | SR | 6'4" | 242 | West Branch, MI |
| 15 | Sebastian Cheeks | LB | SR | 6'3" | 243 | Skokie, IL |
| 19 | Thomas Heiberger | LB | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Sioux Falls, SD |
| 22 | Jaylen Williams | LB | FR | 6'5" | 272 | Chicago, IL |
| 23 | Landon Gauthier | LB | SO | 6'3" | 244 | Green Bay, WI |
| 28 | Jon Jon Kamara | LB | SO | 6'4" | 242 | Goodyear, AZ |
| 34 | Ashton Fickell | LB | FR | 6'4" | 248 | Madison, WI |
| 39 | Jayden Loftin | LB | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Somerville, NJ |
| 43 | Taylor Schaefer | LB | JR | 6'3" | 242 | Sturgeon Bay, WI |
| 44 | Cooper Catalano | LB | SO | 6'1" | 232 | Richfield, WI |
| 45 | Yahya Gaad | LB | FR | 6'4" | 260 | Medina, TN |
| 47 | Evan Van Dyn Hoven | LB | JR | 6'3" | 242 | Menasha, WI |
| 49 | Ben Wenzel | LB | FR | 6'4" | 216 | Appleton, WI |
| 50 | Sam Lateju | LB | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Lagos |
| 51 | Micheal Garner | LB | SR | 6'7" | 309 | Chicago Heights, IL |
| 55 | Drew Braam | LB | SO | 6'1" | 226 | Oak Creek, WI |
| 59 | Aaron Witt | LB | SR | 6'6" | 240 | Winona, MN |
| 77 | Will McDonald | LB | JR | 6'4" | 273 | Houlton, WI |
| 1 | Eric Fletcher Jr. | CB | SO | 6'1" | 193 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 2 | Javan Robinson | CB | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Orlando, FL |
| 3 | Cai Bates | CB | SO | 6'3" | 202 | Orlando, FL |
| 5 | Bryce West | CB | SO | 5'11" | 198 | Cleveland, OH |
| 10 | Jahmare Washington | CB | FR | 6'3" | 175 | Chicago, IL |
| 17 | Carsen Eloms | CB | FR | 6'0" | 183 | Fishers, IN |
| 18 | Donovan Dunmore | CB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Clovis, CA |
| 24 | Jai'mier Scott | CB | FR | 6'1" | 192 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 31 | Dashaun Moss | CB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | St. Louis, MO |
| 4 | Marvin Burks Jr. | S | SR | 6'2" | 208 | St. Louis, MO |
| 11 | Carson Van Dinter | S | SO | 6'2" | 204 | Kaukauna, WI |
| 13 | Matthew Traynor | S | JR | 6'2" | 206 | Marietta, GA |
| 16 | Grant Dean | S | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Neenah, WI |
| 20 | Luke Emmerich | S | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Monticello, MN |
| 21 | Cairo Skanes | S | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Asheville, NC |
| 25 | Will Mikonowicz | S | FR | 6'0" | 212 | Reedsburg, WI |
| 26 | Kah'Ni Watts | S | FR | 6'2" | 183 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 27 | Raphael Dunn | S | SO | 6'4" | 218 | Lawrenceville, NJ |
| 29 | Matthew Jung | S | SR | 6'3" | 213 | Neenah, WI |
| 94 | Brady Melum | PK | FR | 6'0" | 221 | Sun Prairie, WI |
| 97 | Gavin Lahm | PK | SR | 6'1" | 223 | Kaukauna, WI |
| 90 | Will Kelly | P | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Madison, WI |
| 91 | Sean West | P | SO | 6'2" | 204 | Mequon, WI |
| 98 | Ethan Tranel | P | JR | 6'1" | 224 | Blue Mounds, WI |
| 46 | James Roe | LS | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 48 | Andrew Goodman | LS | SR | 5'11" | 225 | Montreal, PQ |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Wisconsin is in year 4 under Luke Fickell, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 16th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 125th at moving the ball on the ground, and they are 125th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Wisconsin has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#16projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#125projected
- Offensefirst and second down#125projected
- Offensethrowing it#123projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.77#104
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.76 / 2.04
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 17.6%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 10.2%#133
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 3.9% / 6.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.13#59 | -0.10#120 | 0.38#94 |
| Defense | 0.14#120 | 0.27#93 | 0.20#40 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1428th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1723rd
- Offense success rate39%26th
- Defense success rate allowed42%30th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs45%32nd
- Offense success — passing downs25%19th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs50%15th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs17%92nd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.482nd
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.9993rd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.393rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.047th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.930th
- Defense line yards allowed3.025th
- Offense highlight yards1.772nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.4374th
- Offense power success0.6328th
- Defense power success allowed0.7543rd
- Offense stuff rate0.1754th
- Defense stuff rate0.071st
Third down
- Third down conversion40%41st
- Third down distance faced6.947th
- Third down conversion allowed30%73rd
- Third down distance forced5.78th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0325th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0424th
Drives
- Points per drive0.6712th
- Points per drive allowed3.813th
- Average starting field position3383rd
- Opponent starting field position2195th
- Available yards gained46%42nd
- Available yards allowed53%46th
- Scoring opportunities per drive56%9th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.645th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.824th
- Three-and-out rate22%57th
- Three-and-outs forced33%74th
Roster
- Returning usage47%54th
- Returning EPA29.813th
- Team talent composite76879th
- Recruiting class rank78.044th
- Recruiting class points18744th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.030 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 47.1%
- Expected, given the spots
- 58.2%
- Over expected
- -11.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- -27
- Fourth down vs the model
- -40
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Wisconsin is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Wisconsin in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 4.8 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 54% | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| 2021 | 9-4 | 6-3 | 69% | 9.0 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 4-3 | 3-3 | 57% | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 10-4 | 7-3 | 71% | 11.1 | -1.1 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 8.1 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 13-1 | 9-1 | 93% | 13.0 | +0.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.7-6.3.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 1.9 points since preseason — lost 13-41 to Notre Dame against an expected margin of −23, so −5.3 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 46% where the average Big Ten team is 69%.
- The Big Ten takes 2.71 bids in an average season, and four or more in 18%.
Wisconsin’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4at Penn State3.8
- wk9at Iowa2.9
- wk8vs USC2.5
- wk7at UCLA2.5
- wk11at Maryland1.9
- wk12at Purdue1.3
Who to root for
Games Wisconsin is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk5Vanderbilt over Georgia0.4
- wk12Eastern Michigan over Western Michigan0.4
- wk11Wake Forest over SMU0.3
- wk13Massachusetts over Bowling Green0.3
- wk9Nevada over UCLA0.3
- wk12Notre Dame over SMU0.3
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 3.8-5.213 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk4Wisconsin at Penn State1.3
- wk9Wisconsin at Iowa1.0
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Wisconsin is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 5.7% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- LA Bowl7.9%
- GameAbove Sports Bowl6.9%
- Rate Bowl5.6%
- Xbox Bowl4.7%
- Pinstripe Bowl4.6%
- Las Vegas Bowl3.7%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 3 have sent Wisconsin a player since 2010 — 7 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Wisconsin's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.