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E.J. Warner
E.J. Warner

#13E.J. Warner

QB·Fresno State·2025

E.J. Warner is a Dual-Threat QB for Fresno State. E.J.'s 2025 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 308 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So E.J. Warner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing
192/277 Comp/Att2030 Pass yards13 Pass TD11 INT69.3% Comp %
Rushing
148 Rush yards1 Rush TD50 Carries3.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency40
  • Volume100
  • Dual-Threat100
  • Consistency73
  • Clutch100
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.52 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Southern.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.000−1.00Wk 1 vs Georgia Southern: +0.29 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Oregon State: +0.64 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Southern: +1.00 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Hawai'i: +0.63 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Nevada: +0.35 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Colorado State: +0.19 EPA/play7Wk 13 vs Utah State: -0.08 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs San José State: -0.00 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
0@KansasL7-314.118/291790266.1-230—
1vsGeorgia SouthernW42-14-9.420/271760258.12800.29
2@Oregon StateW36-27-15.913/181210180.85710.64
3vsSouthernW56-7—20/242404080.2-1001.00
4@Hawai'iW23-211.722/292301077.73800.63
6vsNevadaW20-17-13.418/261902141.3-100.35
7@Colorado StateL21-49-15.628/493503326.2200.19
13vsUtah StateL17-28-3.123/331871125.5130-0.08
14@San José StateW41-14-14.315/201381146.2210-0.00
20vsMiami (OH)W18-3-3.415/222191087.3230—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
47.9%
Passing plays
95.9%
Rushing plays
8.8%
Standard downs
36.4%
Passing downs
74.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.22
Passing downs
0.57
Pass / Rush EPA
0.37 / 0.84

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.
E J Warner Stats, EPA & Player Profile — Fresno State · Gridpex