#5Devin Singletary

RB·Florida Atlantic·2018 20173.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Devin Singletary is a 2-year Featured Back for Florida Atlantic. Devin's 2018 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 244 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Devin Singletary's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1348 Rush yards22 Rush TD261 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

6 Receptions36 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume84
Explosiveness44
Consistency65
Receiving25

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.46 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Bethune-Cookman.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Oklahoma	L14-63	24.9	18	69	3.8	1	1	13	0	0.05
2	vsAir Force	W33-26	-1.8	16	57	3.6	1	—	—	—	-0.20
3	vsBethune-Cookman	W49-28	—	19	84	4.4	5	1	5	0	0.46
4	@UCF	L36-56	16.5	25	131	5.2	3	1	3	0	0.20
5	@Middle Tennessee	L24-25	-3.8	34	118	3.5	2	1	0	0	-0.03
6	vsOld Dominion	W52-33	-14.1	19	168	8.8	2	1	10	0	0.44
8	@Marshall	L7-31	1.0	16	39	2.4	0	—	—	—	-0.03
9	vsLouisiana Tech	L13-21	-6.9	19	171	9.0	1	—	—	—	0.44
10	@Florida International	W49-14	-7.4	27	184	6.8	3	—	—	—	0.33
11	vsWestern Kentucky	W34-15	-16.1	22	148	6.7	2	—	—	—	0.40
12	@North Texas	L38-41	2.1	23	91	4.0	2	1	5	0	0.06
13	vsCharlotte	L24-27	-18.5	23	88	3.8	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.4%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

46.9%

Standard downs

31.7%

Passing downs

24.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.03
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.38 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Florida Atlantic	8.4	0.500	—	159.5
2018	Florida Atlantic	3.5	0.320	-0.18	74.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.