#14DeShone Kizer

QB·Notre Dame·2016 201511.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

DeShone Kizer is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Notre Dame. DeShone's 2015 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 466 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So DeShone Kizer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

211/335 Comp/Att2884 Pass yards21 Pass TD10 INT63.0% Comp %

Rushing

520 Rush yards10 Rush TD134 Carries3.9 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts81 Punt yards40.5 Yards/punt43 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat67
Consistency87
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Massachusetts (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTexas	W38-3	3.7	0/1	0	0	0	44.7	10	0	0.35
2	@Virginia	W34-27	1.4	8/12	92	2	0	79.7	1	0	0.48
3	vsGeorgia Tech	W30-22	9.0	21/30	242	1	1	59.6	6	0	0.14
4	vsMassachusetts	W62-27	-9.5	15/22	207	2	1	85.0	42	1	0.64
5	@Clemson	L22-24	24.0	19/34	321	2	1	56.8	55	1	0.23
6	vsNavy	W41-24	12.1	22/30	281	1	1	72.4	14	1	0.60
7	vsUSC	W41-31	16.8	15/24	227	2	0	74.8	47	0	0.20
9	@Temple	W24-20	6.0	23/36	299	1	2	87.4	143	2	0.35
10	@Pittsburgh	W42-30	11.1	19/26	262	5	0	76.5	-10	1	0.44
11	vsWake Forest	W28-7	-4.5	13/19	111	0	0	80.0	30	2	0.24
12	vsBoston College	W19-16	4.7	21/39	324	2	3	41.9	33	0	0.23
13	@Stanford	L36-38	22.8	13/25	234	1	0	69.4	128	1	0.41
1	vsOhio State	L28-44	29.5	22/37	284	2	1	53.2	21	1	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.3%

Passing plays

86.9%

Rushing plays

25.6%

Standard downs

48.8%

Passing downs

63.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Notre Dame	11.5	0.542	—	271.0
2016	Notre Dame	6.9	0.410	-0.13	214.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.