#0Derrick McFall

WR·SMU·2025

Derrick McFall is a Versatile WR for SMU. Derrick's 2025 season ranks in the 67th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 58 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Derrick McFall's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

189 Rush yards4 Rush TD35 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions160 Rec yards2 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume21
Explosiveness9
Consistency46
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency46th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.41 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.55 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Syracuse (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2025	70	0.220	0.8	15.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsEast Texas A&M	W42-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.25
2	vsBaylor	L45-48	1.4	—	—	—	—	—	-0.67
3	@Missouri State	W28-10	-10.7	3	20	6.7	0	8	0.40
4	@TCU	L24-35	8.3	1	6	6.0	0	6	0.20
6	vsSyracuse	W31-18	-13.1	1	14	14.0	1	14	2.55
7	vsStanford	W34-10	-11.8	2	26	13.0	1	19	1.86
8	@Clemson	W35-24	9.5	—	—	—	—	—	0.36
9	@Wake Forest	L12-13	5.7	4	17	4.3	0	8	-0.17
10	vsMiami	W26-20	20.7	3	58	19.3	0	27	0.49
11	@Boston College	W45-13	-8.5	—	—	—	—	—	0.66
13	vsLouisville	W38-6	12.4	2	9	4.5	0	6	-0.09
14	@California	L35-38	-3.2	2	12	6.0	0	8	0.44
20	vsArizona	W24-19	12.0	1	-2	-2.0	0	20	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.2%

Passing plays

6.0%

Rushing plays

9.0%

Standard downs

8.5%

Passing downs

4.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.83
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / -0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).