Derrick Henry is a Featured Back for Alabama. Derrick's 2015 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 400 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Derrick Henry's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2015 Production
Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency83
- Volume100
- Explosiveness52
- Consistency68
- Receiving18
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (83th percentile).
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 1.10 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Charleston Southern.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.13
- Passing downs
- 0.58
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.21 / 0.22
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.