#33D'Onta Foreman

RB·Texas·20165.3 pts line value1st Round

D'Onta Foreman is a Featured Back for Texas. D'Onta's 2016 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 329 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So D'Onta Foreman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

2028 Rush yards15 Rush TD323 Carries6.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions75 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency45
Volume100
Explosiveness66
Consistency79
Receiving10

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.55 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Texas Tech (SP+ 4).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Mohamed Ibrahim	Minnesota	2022	314	0.330	5.3	103.6
Jaret Patterson	Buffalo	2019	319	0.370	5.6	118.0
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNotre Dame	W50-47	15.7	24	131	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.42
3	@California	L43-50	2.4	21	157	7.5	2	—	—	—	0.32
5	@Oklahoma State	L31-49	16.4	17	148	8.7	2	1	21	0	0.52
6	vsOklahoma	L40-45	26.1	25	159	6.4	2	—	—	—	0.50
7	vsIowa State	W27-6	0.7	30	136	4.5	1	1	3	0	0.17
8	@Kansas State	L21-24	8.2	24	124	5.2	0	1	20	0	0.14
9	vsBaylor	W35-34	11.3	32	250	7.8	2	—	—	—	0.48
10	@Texas Tech	W45-37	3.7	33	341	10.3	3	—	—	—	0.55
11	vsWest Virginia	L20-24	11.3	35	167	4.8	0	3	32	0	0.23
12	@Kansas	L21-24	-15.9	51	250	4.9	2	1	-1	0	-0.03
13	vsTCU	L9-31	11.0	31	165	5.3	0	—	—	—	-0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.1%

Passing plays

2.0%

Rushing plays

61.0%

Standard downs

40.9%

Passing downs

20.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.90 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.