#6Cody Kessler

QB·USC·2015 2014 20132.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Cody Kessler is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for USC. Cody's 2013 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 343 plays — a average rate for the QB. Cody's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cody Kessler's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

236/361 Comp/Att2968 Pass yards20 Pass TD7 INT65.4% Comp %

Rushing

-124 Rush yards1 Rush TD42 Carries-3.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency45
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency62
Clutch73

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.37 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.69 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Fresno State (SP+ 9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Hawai'i	W30-13	-14.3	10/19	95	1	1	19.1	1	0	-0.20
2	vsWashington State	L7-10	8.2	8/13	41	0	1	14.5	4	1	-0.55
3	vsBoston College	W35-7	7.1	15/17	237	2	0	89.1	-5	0	0.67
4	vsUtah State	W17-14	4.2	13/26	164	1	0	34.1	-8	0	-0.06
5	@Arizona State	L41-62	17.5	20/29	295	2	2	39.6	-18	0	0.40
7	vsArizona	W38-31	14.6	15/30	297	2	0	91.4	34	0	0.24
8	@Notre Dame	L10-14	13.2	20/34	201	0	1	21.2	-16	0	0.06
9	vsUtah	W19-3	11.8	21/32	230	1	0	51.8	-30	0	0.39
10	@Oregon State	W31-14	11.9	17/21	247	1	1	64.8	-16	0	0.60
11	@California	W62-28	-8.7	14/17	170	2	0	91.3	-6	0	0.50
12	vsStanford	W20-17	21.7	25/37	288	1	0	64.6	-15	0	0.40
13	@Colorado	W47-29	-0.7	19/28	184	2	0	79.8	-8	0	0.21
14	vsUCLA	L14-35	20.0	17/28	174	1	0	39.7	-43	0	0.36
1	vsFresno State	W45-20	8.8	22/30	345	4	1	97.9	2	0	0.69

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

40.8%

Passing plays

91.4%

Rushing plays

2.3%

Standard downs

30.6%

Passing downs

62.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.37
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.66

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 41 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	USC	2.2	0.250	—	84.8
2014	USC	14.3	0.600	+0.35	312.0
2015	USC	7.7	0.470	-0.13	225.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.