@ Rutgers · Wk 3Win prob 94%Model -21.5Schedule & Results
SJSUSan José StateW42-26✓Wk 1vs
FRESFresno StateW39-0✓Wk 2vs
ULLouisianaW49-30✓Wk 3@RUTGRutgers-21.594%Wk 4vs
OREOregon-0.251%Wk 5vs
WASHWashington-15.286%Wk 6@
PSUPenn State-16.588%Wk 8@
WISWisconsin-20.793%Wk 9vs
OSUOhio State-0.350%Wk 11@
IUIndiana+3.140%Wk 12vs
MDMaryland-20.292%Wk 13@
UCLAUCLA-16.688%Team Leaders
Jayden MaiavaPassing896 yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
King MillerRushing236 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 avg
Trent MosleyReceiving13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
Deven BryantTackles12 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 127 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sam Huard | QB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Bellevue, WA |
| 14 | Jayden Maiava | QB | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 15 | Jonas Williams | QB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Chicago, IL |
| 21 | Alex Medyn | QB | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Norco, CA |
| 28 | James Johnson | QB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 29 | Will Doherty | QB | JR | 6'4" | 220 | Manhattan Beach, CA |
| 2 | Waymond Jordan | RB | SR | 5'10" | 210 | Pensacola, FL |
| 6 | Deshonne Redeaux | RB | FR | 5'10" | 205 | Carson, CA |
| 8 | King Miller | RB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Calabasas, CA |
| 22 | Shahn Alston | RB | FR | 5'10" | 220 | Painesville, OH |
| 27 | Riley Wormley | RB | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Euless, TX |
| 30 | Kayne Miller | RB | FR | 5'8" | 185 | Calabasas, CA |
| 34 | Tyson Park | RB | FR | 5'6" | 195 | Austin, TX |
| 41 | Cian McKelvey | RB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Prescott, AZ |
| 0 | Zacharyus Williams | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Carson, CA |
| 1 | Ethan Feaster | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Shreveport, LA |
| 4 | Trent Mosley | WR | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Terrell Anderson | WR | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Detroit, MI |
| 10 | Corey Simms | WR | SO | 6'3" | 205 | St. Louis, MO |
| 16 | Tanook Hines | WR | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 17 | Kayden Dixon-Wyatt | WR | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Hayward, CA |
| 18 | Romero Ison | WR | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Baltimore, MD |
| 31 | Seth Zamora | WR | SO | 5'9" | 175 | Monrovia, CA |
| 40 | Marcus Sung | WR | JR | 5'10" | 205 | Irvine, CA |
| 49 | Grant Woods | WR | FR | 6'7" | 230 | Thousand Oaks, CA |
| 80 | Luc Weaver | WR | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 81 | Cameron Sermons | WR | FR | 5'10" | 160 | San Bernardino, CA |
| 82 | Roderick Tezeno | WR | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Opelousas, LA |
| 85 | Tron Baker | WR | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Long Beach, CA |
| 86 | Luke Degner | WR | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Laguna Beach, CA |
| 89 | Griffin Brahm | WR | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Dana Point, CA |
| 19 | Mark Bowman | TE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Castle Rock, CO |
| 23 | Walter Matthews | TE | SO | 6'6" | 305 | Hiram, GA |
| 24 | Carson Tabaracci | TE | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Park City, UT |
| 38 | Patrick O'Brien | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | San Diego, CA |
| 44 | Manoah Leiato | TE | FR | 6'2" | 255 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 49 | Fisher Melton | TE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Ladera Ranch, CA |
| 84 | Tucker Ashcraft | TE | JR | 6'5" | 260 | Seattle, WA |
| 87 | Josiah Jefferson | TE | JR | 6'3" | 240 | San Diego, CA |
| 88 | Taniela Tupou | TE | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Carmichael, CA |
| 51 | Vlad Dyakonov | OL | FR | 6'6" | 295 | Folsom, CA |
| 52 | Willi Wascher | OL | FR | 6'2" | 310 | Bellevue, WA |
| 56 | Kannon Smith | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Aurora, CO |
| 57 | Esun Tafa | OL | FR | 6'4" | 325 | West Valley, UT |
| 60 | Kaylon Miller | OL | SO | 6'0" | 305 | Calabasas, CA |
| 62 | Travis Leonard | OL | SO | 5'11" | 275 | Long Beach, CA |
| 63 | Cash Jacobsen | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Jenks, OK |
| 64 | Ryan Pauley | OL | SR | 6'2" | 320 | Carmel, IN |
| 65 | Erwin Taomi | OL | JR | 6'4" | 375 | Anchorage, AK |
| 66 | Breck Kolojay | OL | FR | 6'7" | 310 | Denver, CO |
| 67 | Kilian O'Connor | OL | SR | 6'1" | 300 | Ladera Ranch, CA |
| 68 | Hayden Treter | OL | SO | 6'6" | 320 | Greenwood Village, CO |
| 70 | Aaron Dunn | OL | FR | 6'7" | 310 | Spanish Fork, UT |
| 71 | Keenyi Pepe | OL | FR | 6'7" | 330 | Long Beach, CA |
| 72 | Elijah Paige | OL | JR | 6'7" | 315 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 73 | Tobias Raymond | OL | JR | 6'6" | 310 | Ventura, CA |
| 74 | Justin Tauanuu | OL | SO | 6'6" | 310 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 75 | Ratumana Bulabalavu | OL | SO | 6'3" | 325 | Stockton, CA |
| 76 | John Fifita | OL | FR | 6'6" | 380 | Mountain View, CA |
| 77 | Alani Noa | OL | SR | 6'3" | 315 | Sacramento, CA |
| 78 | Chase Deniz | OL | FR | 6'7" | 315 | San Diego, CA |
| 79 | Elijah Vaikona | OL | FR | 6'8" | 360 | London |
| 1 | Kameryn Crawford | DE | JR | 6'5" | 255 | Mobile, AL |
| 10 | Braylan Shelby | DE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Friendswood, TX |
| 18 | Zuriah Fisher | DE | SR | 6'4" | 265 | Aliquippa, PA |
| 35 | Ty Swanson | DE | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Ladera Ranch, CA |
| 49 | Simote Katoanga | DE | FR | 6'5" | 275 | Oceanside, CA |
| 51 | Andrew Williams | DE | FR | 6'5" | 220 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 54 | Ethan Brougham | DE | JR | 6'2" | 245 | Dana Point, CA |
| 92 | Sam Smith | DE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | San Juan Capistrano, CA |
| 94 | Luke Wafle | DE | FR | 6'6" | 265 | Middletown, NJ |
| 95 | Jadyn Ramos | DE | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Houston, TX |
| 4 | Jahkeem Stewart | DT | SO | 6'5" | 295 | Reserve, LA |
| 44 | Braeden Jones | DT | FR | 6'4" | 270 | Chicago, IL |
| 45 | Jaimeon Winfield | DT | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Meridian, MS |
| 52 | Tomuhini Topui | DT | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Inglewood, CA |
| 88 | Floyd Boucard | DT | SO | 6'3" | 315 | Montreal, PQ |
| 89 | Brendan Cho | DT | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Chatsworth, CA |
| 90 | Jake Johnson | DT | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Prosper, TX |
| 91 | Alex VanSumeren | DT | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Bay City, MI |
| 96 | Jordan Abarca | DT | SO | 6'4" | 260 | Seal Beach, CA |
| 97 | Jide Abasiri | DT | JR | 6'5" | 280 | Prior Lake, MN |
| 99 | Jamaal Jarrett | DT | JR | 6'5" | 360 | Greensboro, NC |
| 8 | Desman Stephens II | LB | JR | 6'3" | 250 | Clarkston, MI |
| 14 | Ta'Mere Robinson | LB | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 15 | Jadyn Walker | LB | SO | 6'2" | 240 | Portage, MI |
| 17 | Deven Bryant | LB | JR | 5'11" | 230 | Carson, CA |
| 22 | Talanoa Ili | LB | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Chino, CA |
| 24 | Shaun Scott | LB | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Fontana, CA |
| 26 | Elijah Newby | LB | SO | 6'3" | 235 | Cheshire, CT |
| 41 | Ryan O'Connell | LB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Fairfield, CT |
| 46 | Nick De Fina | LB | SR | 6'0" | 195 | San Diego, CA |
| 47 | Austin Engroff | LB | FR | 5'11" | 215 | Boise, ID |
| 50 | Taylor Johnson | LB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | San Bernardino, CA |
| 57 | Roman Marchetti | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 58 | GianCarlo Rufo | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Honolulu, HI |
| 0 | Jontez Williams | CB | SR | 5'10" | 200 | Starke, FL |
| 2 | Elbert Hill IV | CB | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Cleveland, OH |
| 7 | Alex Graham | CB | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Detroit, MI |
| 16 | Prophet Brown | CB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Sacramento, CA |
| 19 | Brandon Lockhart | CB | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 21 | RJ Sermons | CB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | San Bernardino, CA |
| 25 | Marcelles Williams | CB | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Carson, CA |
| 27 | Chasen Johnson | CB | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Sanford, FL |
| 28 | Carrington Pierce | CB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA |
| 29 | Joshua Holland II | CB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Long Beach, CA |
| 34 | Jayden Crowder | CB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Eastvale, CA |
| 37 | Trestin Castro | CB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Upland, CA |
| 40 | Shawn Sehra | CB | JR | 5'9" | 180 | Thousand Oaks, CA |
| 48 | Derek Diniz | CB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Pebble Beach, CA |
| 6 | Christian Pierce | S | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Fontana, CA |
| 9 | Kennedy Urlacher | S | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Chandler, AZ |
| 23 | Kendarius Reddick | S | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Thomasville, GA |
| 30 | Marquis Gallegos | S | SO | 6'0" | 195 | North Hollywood, CA |
| 31 | Madden Riordan | S | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Pasadena, CA |
| 36 | Peyton Dyer | S | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Decatur, GA |
| 38 | Isaiah Rubin | S | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Long Beach, CA |
| 39 | Peter Sciarrino | S | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Manhattan Beach, CA |
| 45 | Caden Chittenden | PK | SO | 5'10" | 190 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 35 | Lachlan Carrigan | P | SO | 6'3" | 205 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 36 | Rey Sanchez | P | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Carson, CA |
| 37 | Zachary Nandlal | P | SO | 5'8" | 177 | Sydney, NSW |
| 39 | Nate Hillenburg | P | SR | 6'4" | 220 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 48 | Ryon Sayeri | P | SO | 5'11" | 185 | West Hills, CA |
| 93 | William Weisberg | P | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 46 | Dylan Black | LS | SR | 6'1" | 220 | Reno, NV |
| 53 | Luke Brown | LS | FR | 6'2" | 215 | China Spring, TX |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
USC throws it: Lincoln Riley's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at throwing it. The way in is 114th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
USC has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensethrowing it+0.87#1 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down62%#2 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve50%#2 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.11#114 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.41#34
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.26 / 0.51
- Power / stuff (off)
- 76.9% / 16.5%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.5%#114
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.0% / 2.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.14#54 | 0.53#19 | 1.13#7 |
| Defense | 0.03#93 | 0.31#104 | 0.05#18 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3779th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0655th
- Offense success rate57%95th
- Defense success rate allowed36%60th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs59%85th
- Offense success — passing downs48%93rd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs40%63rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs30%37th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.129th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.336th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.849th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.058th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.370th
- Defense line yards allowed2.466th
- Offense highlight yards0.5218th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.8743rd
- Offense power success0.7553rd
- Defense power success allowed0.3393rd
- Offense stuff rate0.1848th
- Defense stuff rate0.2257th
Third down
- Third down conversion66%96th
- Third down distance faced5.787th
- Third down conversion allowed36%55th
- Third down distance forced7.348th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3194th
- Net success rate — second half0.0751st
Drives
- Points per drive4.494th
- Points per drive allowed1.668th
- Average starting field position3057th
- Opponent starting field position2672nd
- Available yards gained81%98th
- Available yards allowed43%68th
- Scoring opportunities per drive81%53rd
- Scoring opportunities allowed75%64th
- Points per scoring opportunity5.496th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.463rd
- Three-and-out rate4%96th
- Three-and-outs forced36%75th
CORE
- CORE offense12.599th
- CORE defense-1.957th
- CORE overall14.495th
Roster
- Returning usage66%76th
- Returning EPA30697th
- Team talent composite89994th
- Recruiting class rank1.099th
- Recruiting class points31199th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.781 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
3-0 record through 3 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
The season, week by week · 2026
A season-long average is taken over a period during which the team changed. This is the same numbers as a trajectory, so a mid-season turn is visible instead of averaged away.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 27 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 46.2%
- Expected, given the spots
- 43.5%
- Over expected
- +2.6
- Fourth down vs peers
- +28
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. USC is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to USC in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 7-2 | 69% | 8.5 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 6.6 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 11-3 | 8-2 | 79% | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 33% | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 83% | 2.7 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 7-2 | 62% | 7.8 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 42% | 6.4 | -1.4 |
| 2017 | 11-3 | 9-1 | 79% | 9.4 | +1.6 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
3-0 so far, projected to finish 8.0-4.1. Top-four bye in 3.1%. Wins the Big Ten in 2.5%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
down 7.6 points since preseason — won 42-26 over San José State against an expected margin of +36, so −2.3 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 92% where the average Big Ten team is 69%.
- The Big Ten takes 2.71 bids in an average season, and four or more in 18%.
USC’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9vs Ohio State32.2
- wk11at Indiana31.1
- wk6at Penn State26.3
- wk4vs Oregon25.1
- wk13at UCLA21.3
- wk5vs Washington18.2
Who to root for
Games USC is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Purdue over Penn State2.6
- wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech2.2
- wk5Iowa over Ohio State2.2
- wk12Nebraska over Ohio State1.8
- wk3Wake Forest over Miami1.7
- wk11Northwestern over Ohio State1.6
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 4.9-4.15 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Ohio State at USC7.4
- wk11USC at Indiana7.3
- wk6USC at Penn State4.6
- wk4Oregon at USC4.5
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
USC is 3-0 and needs 3 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Las Vegas Bowl11%
- Music City Bowl9.9%
- ReliaQuest Bowl9.8%
- Pinstripe Bowl9.1%
- Citrus Bowl9.1%
- Rate Bowl8.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 20 have sent USC a player since 2010 — 101 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of USC's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.