#6Caleb Evans

QB·UL Monroe·20197.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Caleb Evans is a Dual-Threat QB for UL Monroe. Caleb's 2019 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 520 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Caleb Evans's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

238/389 Comp/Att2939 Pass yards21 Pass TD10 INT61.2% Comp %

Rushing

794 Rush yards12 Rush TD140 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.62 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs South Alabama (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGrambling	W31-9	—	19/25	183	1	1	64.1	22	0	0.22
2	@Florida State	L44-45	1.8	23/38	241	2	0	77.4	32	2	0.22
4	@Iowa State	L20-72	12.6	19/30	176	2	1	40.5	93	0	0.21
5	vsSouth Alabama	W30-17	-20.3	17/25	286	3	0	88.5	27	1	0.62
6	vsMemphis	L33-52	18.0	23/44	286	2	1	62.6	112	2	0.10
7	@Texas State	W24-14	-16.2	18/33	225	0	1	64.1	55	0	0.29
8	@App State	L7-52	11.3	9/19	75	0	1	21.7	22	0	-0.11
10	vsArkansas State	L41-48	-2.9	24/37	215	2	0	—	148	3	0.51
11	vsGeorgia State	W45-31	-10.5	24/32	291	3	1	—	110	1	0.52
12	@Georgia Southern	L29-51	-4.5	21/36	285	2	2	—	27	1	0.20
13	vsCoastal Carolina	W45-42	-12.8	19/33	346	2	1	—	69	1	0.55
14	@Louisiana	L30-31	9.6	22/37	330	2	1	—	77	1	0.44

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.3%

Passing plays

95.0%

Rushing plays

28.9%

Standard downs

55.7%

Passing downs

69.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.53

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.