Tulane vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 1:40UTSAWill Henderson III 17 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)26–48
- Q4 7:10TULNTre Shackelford 15 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Patrick Durkin Kick)26–41
- Q4 14:44UTSAMichael Petro 43 Yd Field Goal 19–41
- Q3 3:26TULNOmari Hayes 42 Yd pass from Jimmy Calloway (Patrick Durkin Kick)19–38
- Q3 10:08UTSAWill Henderson III 16 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)12–38
- Q2 0:07TULNZycarl Lewis Jr. 10 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q2 0:45UTSADavid Amador II 14 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–31
- Q2 3:37UTSADevin McCuin 21 Yd pass from David Amador II (Michael Petro Kick)6–24
- Q2 12:10UTSADevin McCuin 6 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–17
- Q1 5:06UTSAMichael Petro 34 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q1 9:50UTSADavid Amador II 2 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–7
- Q1 11:37TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TULN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 7.5
- PassJake Retzlaff 14/28, 194 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJake Retzlaff 7 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOmari Hayes 3 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- PassOwen McCown 31/33, 370 YDS, 4 TD
- RushRobert Henry Jr. 16 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecDavid Amador II 10 REC, 113 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:10UTSA +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #1 D.McCuin caught at TULANE00, for 6 yards to the TULANE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 3:37UTSA +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Amador II pass complete deep right to #1 D.McCuin caught at TULANE00, for 21 yards to the TULANE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 12:33TULN +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass incomplete deep left to #83 B.Bohanon thrown to UTSA00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (#7 J.Wyrick) 15 yards from UTSA…
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. UTSA?
Tulane 26, UTSA 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TULN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TULN | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 434 | Total yards | 523 |
| 299 | Passing yards | 391 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 132 |
| 24 | First downs | 28 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/36 | Comp/Att | 32/34 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-36 | Penalties | 10-116 |
| 23:05 | Possession | 36:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:07 UTSA punt on 4th & 2 at UTSA 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:40UTSAWill Henderson III 17 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)26–48
- Q4 7:10TULNTre Shackelford 15 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Patrick Durkin Kick)26–41
- Q4 14:44UTSAMichael Petro 43 Yd Field Goal 19–41
- Q3 3:26TULNOmari Hayes 42 Yd pass from Jimmy Calloway (Patrick Durkin Kick)19–38
- Q3 10:08UTSAWill Henderson III 16 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)12–38
- Q2 0:07TULNZycarl Lewis Jr. 10 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
- Q2 0:45UTSADavid Amador II 14 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–31
- Q2 3:37UTSADevin McCuin 21 Yd pass from David Amador II (Michael Petro Kick)6–24
- Q2 12:10UTSADevin McCuin 6 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–17
- Q1 5:06UTSAMichael Petro 34 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q1 9:50UTSADavid Amador II 2 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)6–7
- Q1 11:37TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1470, TULN Elo 1588 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA +2.3 (45% to win) — 3.7 points clear of UTSA's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #69 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| TULN | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#47) | CORE overall | +4.7 (#58) |
| +5 / -2 | offense / defense | +3 / -2 |
| 2.56 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →