Penn State vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 0:17PSUA.J. Harris Safety37–42
- Q4 4:11PSUKyron Hudson 15 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)35–42
- Q4 6:41UCLANico Iamaleava 7 Yd Run (Nico Iamaleava Pass to Kwazi Gilmer for Two-Point Conversion)28–42
- Q4 14:26PSUKaytron Allen 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)28–34
- Q3 2:55UCLANico Iamaleava 1 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)21–34
- Q3 7:19PSULiam Clifford 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Barker Kick)21–27
- Q3 11:28PSUKhalil Dinkins 40 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)14–27
- Q2 0:00UCLAMateen Bhaghani 54 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 4:47UCLANico Iamaleava 3 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:50UCLATitus Mokiao-Atimalala 6 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:06PSUKaytron Allen 13 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:20UCLAMateen Bhaghani 24 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:26UCLAKwazi Gilmer 11 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrew Allar 19/26, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDrew Allar 11 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecKyron Hudson 4 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNico Iamaleava 17/24, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNico Iamaleava 16 CAR, 128 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKwazi Gilmer 5 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:59PSU +92%
Anthony Woods run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31
- Q4 6:46UCLA +53%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for no gain to the UCLA 35
- Q4 14:26PSU +31%
Kaytron Allen 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
- Q3 2:55UCLA +31%
Nico Iamaleava 1 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
- Q4 4:11PSU +19%
Kyron Hudson 15 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)
- Q4 4:09UCLA +14%
Jaivian Thomas run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. UCLA?
Penn State 37, UCLA 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PSU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 357 | Total yards | 435 |
| 200 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 157 | Rushing yards | 269 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 19/26 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-43 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 20:42 | Possession | 39:18 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:17PSUA.J. Harris Safety37–42
- Q4 4:11PSUKyron Hudson 15 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)35–42
- Q4 6:41UCLANico Iamaleava 7 Yd Run (Nico Iamaleava Pass to Kwazi Gilmer for Two-Point Conversion)28–42
- Q4 14:26PSUKaytron Allen 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)28–34
- Q3 2:55UCLANico Iamaleava 1 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)21–34
- Q3 7:19PSULiam Clifford 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Barker Kick)21–27
- Q3 11:28PSUKhalil Dinkins 40 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)14–27
- Q2 0:00UCLAMateen Bhaghani 54 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 4:47UCLANico Iamaleava 3 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:50UCLATitus Mokiao-Atimalala 6 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:06PSUKaytron Allen 13 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–10
- Q1 7:20UCLAMateen Bhaghani 24 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:26UCLAKwazi Gilmer 11 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1331, PSU Elo 2070 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +27.2 (5% to win) — 2.7 points clear of PSU's market line of +24.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #1 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #3 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →UCLA leads 5–3 · 63% have been one-possession games
| PSU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.0 (#32) | CORE overall | -6.4 (#84) |
| +8 / -5 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 2.96 | points / drive | 1.90 |
| 2.25 | allowed / drive | 3.43 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →