Tulane vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsARMY
- Q4 1:10TULNAlex Bauman 2 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–35
- Q4 6:29ARMYKanye Udoh 1 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)7–35
- Q3 8:29ARMYBryson Daily 7 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:44TULNMario Williams 42 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:40ARMYBryson Daily 4 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:18ARMYBryson Daily 3 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:48ARMYBryson Daily 5 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TULN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.7 vs 3rd & 3.4
- PassDarian Mensah 17/25, 209 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMakhi Hughes 14 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecMario Williams 6 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryson Daily 2/2, 17 YDS
- RushKanye Udoh 20 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCasey Reynolds 1 REC, 9 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:48ARMY +19%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
- Q2 10:18ARMY +19%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
- Q2 0:44TULN +12%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 42 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q2 1:40ARMY +11%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
- Q3 8:29ARMY +8%
Bryson Daily run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Army?
Tulane 14, Army 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TULN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TULN | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 324 | Total yards | 352 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 17 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 335 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 2/2 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 25:40 | Possession | 34:20 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:13 TULN go for it on 4th & 8 at ARMY 16. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:10TULNAlex Bauman 2 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–35
- Q4 6:29ARMYKanye Udoh 1 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)7–35
- Q3 8:29ARMYBryson Daily 7 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:44TULNMario Williams 42 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:40ARMYBryson Daily 4 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:18ARMYBryson Daily 3 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:48ARMYBryson Daily 5 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1611, TULN Elo 1829 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY +6.3 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #76 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Tulane leads 14–10–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| TULN | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.8 (#27) | CORE overall | +10.0 (#35) |
| +7 / -7 | offense / defense | +10 / -0 |
| 2.86 | points / drive | 3.77 |
| 1.70 | allowed / drive | 1.95 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →