Texas Southern vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Texas Southern

07

Rice0-1

▸0069

Final

Rice Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
TEXA	0	0	0	7	7
RICE	14	24	17	14	69

TEXATeam statsRICE

87Total yards533

49Pass204

38Rush329

9First downs24

4-153rd down3-8

2Turnovers1

33:04Possession26:56

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:14TEXAKordell Rodgers 12 Yd pass from Jordon Davis (Gustavo Romero Kick)7–69
• Q4 7:07RICEColeman Bennett 22 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–69
• Q4 10:08RICETaji Atkins 33 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–62
• Q3 1:04RICETaji Atkins 5 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–55
• Q3 8:59RICEEnock Gota 44 Yd Field Goal 0–48
• Q3 14:37RICEDean Connors 71 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:02RICEEnock Gota 25 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 6:46RICEDean Connors 5 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–35
• Q2 10:59RICETyson Flowers 34 Yd Interception Return (Enock Gota Kick)0–28
• Q2 11:48RICEMatt Sykes 34 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Enock Gota Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:15RICEBraylen Walker 4 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Enock Gota Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:43RICEDean Connors 5 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

RICE −30

Against the number

RICE covered

line RICE −30

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

RICE 100%50%TEXA 100%

Kickoff143 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

RICE (top)TEXA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: RICE 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

RICE −30

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

TEXA 7 – 69 RICE

Leaders

Texas Southern

• PassJordon Davis 8/13, 42 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushDanny Green Jr. 7 CAR, 18 YDS
• RecDonald McKinney 2 REC, 19 YDS

Rice

• PassE.J. Warner 20/30, 189 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushDean Connors 9 CAR, 113 YDS, 3 TD
• RecMatt Sykes 2 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

118

Points / snap

0.64

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

RICE up 55 entering the 4th quarter. Across 46 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

RICE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCentral Michigan vs Central Connecticut65-10WSouthern Illinois vs Murray State69-0WNorth Carolina Central vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg104-0WToledo vs Texas Southern71-3WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10

Fourth downs

16 calls

RICE gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.TEXA 10/11 · RICE 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Texas Southern vs. Rice?

Texas Southern 7, Rice 69.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (RICE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TEXA

RICE

22%

Success rate

56%

-0.27

EPA / pass

0.27

-0.12

EPA / rush

0.76

18%

Early-down success

57%

21%

Pass success

47%

23%

Rush success

65%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

13%

Stuffed rush rate

7%

44%

Pass rate

51%

9.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.5

TEXA

9.4 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

RICE

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TEXA		RICE
87	Total yards	533
49	Passing yards	204
38	Rushing yards	329
9	First downs	24
4-15	3rd down	3-8
0-0	4th down	2-2
10/19	Comp/Att	22/32
2.6	Yards per pass	6.4
1.1	Yards per rush	10.3
2	Turnovers	1
6-40	Penalties	8-72
33:04	Possession	26:56

Fourth downs

16 calls

TEXA

10/11 with the model

nothing given up

RICE

4/5 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 0:02 RICE field goal on 4th & 4 at TEXA 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.06 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TEXA 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →RICE 10/13 scoring drives

RICETD8 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 17 yds· own 17Q1

RICETD11 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1

RICEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 48Q2

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 2Q2

RICETD1 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q2

TEXATD2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

TEXAPUNT4 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

RICETD3 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q2

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q2

RICEINT1 pl, 0 yds· opp 45Q2

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q2

RICEFG15 pl, 67 yds· own 26Q2

TEXAEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

RICETD1 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

RICEFG6 pl, 29 yds· own 45Q3

TEXAINT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3

RICETD11 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3

RICETD3 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q4

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q4

RICETD2 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q4

TEXATD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

RICEEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 44Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:14TEXAKordell Rodgers 12 Yd pass from Jordon Davis (Gustavo Romero Kick)7–69
• Q4 7:07RICEColeman Bennett 22 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–69
• Q4 10:08RICETaji Atkins 33 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–62
• Q3 1:04RICETaji Atkins 5 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–55
• Q3 8:59RICEEnock Gota 44 Yd Field Goal 0–48
• Q3 14:37RICEDean Connors 71 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:02RICEEnock Gota 25 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 6:46RICEDean Connors 5 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–35
• Q2 10:59RICETyson Flowers 34 Yd Interception Return (Enock Gota Kick)0–28
• Q2 11:48RICEMatt Sykes 34 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Enock Gota Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:15RICEBraylen Walker 4 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Enock Gota Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:43RICEDean Connors 5 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →