Murray State vs. Southern Illinois: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Murray State0-2

00

Southern Illinois0-1

▸0062

Final

Saluki StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
MURR	0	0	0	0	0
SOUT	13	28	14	7	62

MURRTeam statsSOUT

185Total yards529

110Pass283

75Rush246

9First downs25

5-143rd down8-15

5Turnovers0

25:58Possession34:02

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:41SOUTJeremiah Baxter 0 Yd Run (Paul Geelen Kick)0–62
• Q3 3:11SOUTJay Jones 1 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–55
• Q3 7:56SOUTBradley Clark 23 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–48
• Q2 0:42SOUTKeontez Lewis 65 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–41
• Q2 1:25SOUTNah'shawn Hezekiah 35 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–34
• Q2 8:02SOUTNah'shawn Hezekiah 19 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–27
• Q2 10:05SOUTKeontez Lewis 4 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–20
• Q1 1:30SOUTBradley Clark 35 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–13
• Q1 4:52SOUTPaul Geelen 39 Yd Field Goal 0–6
• Q1 7:33SOUTPaul Geelen 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −17

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −17

What the numbers say

• MURR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%MURR 100%

Kickoff144 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)MURR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −17

Closing total

56.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MURR 0 – 62 SOUT

Leaders

Murray State

• PassJayden Johannsen 7/11, 80 YDS, 2 INT
• RushKywon Morgan 6 CAR, 32 YDS
• RecJ'Kalon Carter 4 REC, 62 YDS

Southern Illinois

• PassMichael Lindauer 20/33, 283 YDS, 7 TD
• RushAllen Middleton 15 CAR, 124 YDS
• RecKeontez Lewis 5 REC, 104 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 55 entering the 4th quarter. Across 44 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCentral Michigan vs Central Connecticut65-10WRice vs Texas Southern69-7WNorth Carolina Central vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg104-0WToledo vs Texas Southern71-3WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10

Fourth downs

15 calls

MURR gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.MURR 7/9 · SOUT 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Murray State vs. Southern Illinois?

Murray State 0, Southern Illinois 62.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MURR

SOUT

32%

Success rate

49%

-0.30

EPA / pass

0.62

-0.24

EPA / rush

0.13

28%

Early-down success

48%

36%

Pass success

50%

28%

Rush success

49%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

38%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

49%

Pass rate

45%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

MURR

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MURR		SOUT
185	Total yards	529
110	Passing yards	283
75	Rushing yards	246
9	First downs	25
5-14	3rd down	8-15
0-2	4th down	1-2
12/24	Comp/Att	20/33
4.6	Yards per pass	8.6
2.3	Yards per rush	5.7
5	Turnovers	0
0-0	Penalties	1-5
25:58	Possession	34:02

Fourth downs

15 calls

MURR

7/9 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

SOUT

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 0:51 MURR punt on 4th & 1 at MURR 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MURR 0/14 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 9/14 scoring drives

MURRDOWNS8 pl, 52 yds· own 34Q1

SOUTFG6 pl, 57 yds· own 14Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 5Q1

SOUTFG5 pl, 21 yds· opp 43Q1

MURRDOWNS7 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTTD1 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTTD11 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

MURRINT2 pl, 9 yds· own 28Q2

SOUTTD3 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q2

MURRINT2 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 44Q2

MURRPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q2

SOUTTD10 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

MURRPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTTD1 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

MURREND1 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q2

MURRPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTTD11 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

MURRINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 26Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 41Q3

MURRPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 5Q3

SOUTTD4 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3

MURRPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 15Q3

SOUTTD10 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q4

MURRINT10 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTEND6 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:41SOUTJeremiah Baxter 0 Yd Run (Paul Geelen Kick)0–62
• Q3 3:11SOUTJay Jones 1 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–55
• Q3 7:56SOUTBradley Clark 23 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–48
• Q2 0:42SOUTKeontez Lewis 65 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–41
• Q2 1:25SOUTNah'shawn Hezekiah 35 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–34
• Q2 8:02SOUTNah'shawn Hezekiah 19 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–27
• Q2 10:05SOUTKeontez Lewis 4 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–20
• Q1 1:30SOUTBradley Clark 35 Yd pass from Michael Lindauer (Paul Geelen Kick)0–13
• Q1 4:52SOUTPaul Geelen 39 Yd Field Goal 0–6
• Q1 7:33SOUTPaul Geelen 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →