South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsEMU
- Q4 0:58EMUCam'Ron McCoy 10 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–59
- Q3 2:07USAPJ Martin 6 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–59
- Q3 7:50USAGio Lopez 27 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–52
- Q3 11:07USADesmond Trotter 3 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–45
- Q2 1:39USAJamaal Pritchett 42 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–38
- Q2 8:07USADJ Thomas-Jones 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–31
- Q2 10:15USAKentrel Bullock 17 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–24
- Q2 14:50EMUJesus Gomez 49 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q1 3:30USAJamaal Pritchett 5 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:37USADJ Thomas-Jones 3 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:50USADiego Guajardo 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
How the model called it
- PassGio Lopez 14/19, 192 YDS, 3 TD
- RushGio Lopez 7 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamaal Pritchett 8 REC, 127 YDS, 2 TD
- PassCam'Ron McCoy 12/27, 73 YDS, 2 INT
- RushCam'Ron McCoy 13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTerry Lockett Jr. 2 REC, 29 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan?
South Alabama 59, Eastern Michigan 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
| USA | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 627 | Total yards | 150 |
| 307 | Passing yards | 73 |
| 320 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 29 | First downs | 10 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 23/36 | Comp/Att | 12/30 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 2.4 |
| 8.6 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-63 | Penalties | 4-32 |
| 30:53 | Possession | 29:07 |
- Q4 0:58EMUCam'Ron McCoy 10 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–59
- Q3 2:07USAPJ Martin 6 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–59
- Q3 7:50USAGio Lopez 27 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–52
- Q3 11:07USADesmond Trotter 3 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–45
- Q2 1:39USAJamaal Pritchett 42 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–38
- Q2 8:07USADJ Thomas-Jones 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–31
- Q2 10:15USAKentrel Bullock 17 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)3–24
- Q2 14:50EMUJesus Gomez 49 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q1 3:30USAJamaal Pritchett 5 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–17
- Q1 7:37USADJ Thomas-Jones 3 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:50USADiego Guajardo 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1285, USA Elo 1621 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU +11 (24% to win) — 7.0 points clear of EMU's market line of +18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USA | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.0 (#30) | CORE overall | -24.8 (#131) |
| +6 / -5 | offense / defense | -17 / +8 |
| 2.80 | points / drive | 1.47 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →