South Alabama vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsAPP
- Q4 0:52APPMaquel Haywood 2 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)48–14
- Q4 4:15USAIverson Celestine 6 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)48–7
- Q3 5:35USAFluff Bothwell 14 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)41–7
- Q3 11:08USAJamaal Pritchett 18 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan PAT failed)34–7
- Q2 0:00APPDalton Stroman 47 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–7
- Q2 2:30USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:30USAGio Lopez 31 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:10USAFluff Bothwell 22 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:59USADJ Thomas-Jones 10 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- APP played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassGio Lopez 16/24, 154 YDS, 2 TD
- RushFluff Bothwell 14 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJamaal Pritchett 6 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoey Aguilar 21/40, 266 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMaquel Haywood 7 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKaedin Robinson 6 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:59USA +16%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 10 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
- Q1 7:10USA +13%
Fluff Bothwell run for 22 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
- Q2 5:30USA +7%
Gio Lopez run for 31 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. App State?
South Alabama 48, App State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
| USA | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 474 | Total yards | 385 |
| 154 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 320 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 26 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 21/40 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-69 | Penalties | 6-47 |
| 34:12 | Possession | 25:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:53 USA punt on 4th & 2 at APP 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:52APPMaquel Haywood 2 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)48–14
- Q4 4:15USAIverson Celestine 6 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)48–7
- Q3 5:35USAFluff Bothwell 14 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)41–7
- Q3 11:08USAJamaal Pritchett 18 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan PAT failed)34–7
- Q2 0:00APPDalton Stroman 47 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–7
- Q2 2:30USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:30USAGio Lopez 31 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:10USAFluff Bothwell 22 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:59USADJ Thomas-Jones 10 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Laith Marjan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1447, USA Elo 1576 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP +2.8 (44% to win) — 10.3 points clear of USA's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #62 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| USA | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#46) | CORE overall | -13.3 (#112) |
| +5 / -1 | offense / defense | +0 / +13 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.12 | allowed / drive | 3.14 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →