Baylor vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsTTU
- Q4 2:01TTUCaleb Douglas 7 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Behren Morton Pass to Josh Kelly for Two-Point Conversion)59–35
- Q4 5:40BAYDequan Finn 34 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)59–27
- Q4 6:31TTUJ'Koby Williams 18 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)52–27
- Q4 9:41BAYJosh Cameron 12 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)52–21
- Q4 13:02BAYMonaray Baldwin 24 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)45–21
- Q3 3:08BAYHal Presley 35 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)38–21
- Q3 6:17BAYJosh Cameron 11 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)31–21
- Q3 11:15TTUTahj Brooks 31 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)24–21
- Q2 0:04BAYJosh Cameron 6 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)24–14
- Q2 1:54TTUCaleb Douglas 20 Yd pass from Jalin Conyers (Reese Burkhardt Kick)17–14
- Q2 10:30BAYIsaiah Hankins 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 11:44BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:47TTUCaleb Douglas 12 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Gino Garcia Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:54BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassSawyer Robertson 21/32, 274 YDS, 5 TD
- RushBryson Washington 10 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJosh Cameron 6 REC, 75 YDS, 3 TD
- PassBehren Morton 33/49, 286 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTahj Brooks 25 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaleb Douglas 9 REC, 99 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:17BAY +27%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q3 11:15TTU +25%
Tahj Brooks run for 31 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
- Q2 0:04BAY +24%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q2 11:44BAY +23%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q2 1:54TTU +22%
Jalin Conyers pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 20 yds for a TD (Reese Burkhardt KICK)
- Q1 1:47TTU +18%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 12 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Texas Tech?
Baylor 59, Texas Tech 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TTU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BAY | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 529 | Total yards | 455 |
| 274 | Passing yards | 306 |
| 255 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 23 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 5-6 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 34/50 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 7.7 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-90 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 24:23 | Possession | 35:37 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:05 TTU go for it on 4th & 7 at TTU 25. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:01TTUCaleb Douglas 7 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Behren Morton Pass to Josh Kelly for Two-Point Conversion)59–35
- Q4 5:40BAYDequan Finn 34 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)59–27
- Q4 6:31TTUJ'Koby Williams 18 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)52–27
- Q4 9:41BAYJosh Cameron 12 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)52–21
- Q4 13:02BAYMonaray Baldwin 24 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)45–21
- Q3 3:08BAYHal Presley 35 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)38–21
- Q3 6:17BAYJosh Cameron 11 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)31–21
- Q3 11:15TTUTahj Brooks 31 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)24–21
- Q2 0:04BAYJosh Cameron 6 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)24–14
- Q2 1:54TTUCaleb Douglas 20 Yd pass from Jalin Conyers (Reese Burkhardt Kick)17–14
- Q2 10:30BAYIsaiah Hankins 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 11:44BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:47TTUCaleb Douglas 12 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Gino Garcia Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:54BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1644, BAY Elo 1457 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU -9.9 (75% to win) — 5.4 points clear of TTU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #77 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Baylor leads 42–40–1 · 35% have been one-possession games
| BAY | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.7 (#34) | CORE overall | +3.0 (#56) |
| +10 / -1 | offense / defense | +3 / +0 |
| 2.77 | points / drive | 2.84 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →