#8Kenny Pickett

QB·Pittsburgh·2021 20207.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kenny Pickett is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Pittsburgh. Kenny's 2021 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 550 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kenny Pickett's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

334/497 Comp/Att4319 Pass yards42 Pass TD7 INT67.2% Comp %

Rushing

241 Rush yards5 Rush TD97 Carries2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch85

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.21 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs New Hampshire.

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMassachusetts	W51-7	-29.3	27/37	272	2	0	71.6	39	0	0.48
2	@Tennessee	W41-34	17.5	24/36	285	2	0	88.5	19	1	0.48
3	vsWestern Michigan	L41-44	0.6	23/31	382	6	1	92.3	57	0	0.67
4	vsNew Hampshire	W77-7	—	24/28	403	5	0	97.6	6	1	1.21
5	@Georgia Tech	W52-21	-6.7	23/36	389	4	0	86.9	21	0	0.67
7	@Virginia Tech	W28-7	2.4	22/37	203	2	0	67.4	38	1	0.15
8	vsClemson	W27-17	18.7	25/39	302	2	0	91.5	15	0	0.42
9	vsMiami	L34-38	10.8	39/55	519	3	2	75.7	-10	0	0.39
10	@Duke	W54-29	-13.5	28/43	416	3	0	85.1	57	1	0.59
11	vsNorth Carolina	W30-23	6.4	25/43	346	3	1	63.5	-11	0	0.21
12	vsVirginia	W48-38	7.2	26/41	340	4	2	60.7	-14	0	0.33
13	@Syracuse	W31-14	0.3	28/38	209	4	1	79.0	4	0	0.34
14	vsWake Forest	W45-21	10.1	20/33	253	2	0	78.1	20	1	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.2%

Passing plays

95.3%

Rushing plays

15.6%

Standard downs

53.4%

Passing downs

70.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.50

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Pittsburgh	2.2	0.341	—	141.4
2021	Pittsburgh	7.4	0.485	+0.14	271.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.