SMU vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SMUTeam statsECU
- Q4 11:19ECUDevin Anderson 2 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)55–31
- Q4 13:49SMUKevin Johnson 10 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)55–24
- Q3 5:09SMUJosh Williams 32 Yd Field Goal 48–24
- Q3 11:32SMUHorace Richardson 80 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)45–24
- Q2 0:00ECUZay Jones 8 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Davis Plowman Kick)38–24
- Q2 1:09SMUCourtland Sutton 22 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)38–17
- Q2 4:53SMUHorace Richardson 70 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)31–17
- Q2 6:05SMUJames Proche 10 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)24–17
- Q2 9:47ECUDavis Plowman 27 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 12:41SMUKe'Mon Freeman 39 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)17–14
- Q2 14:54ECUJames Summers 14 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)10–14
- Q1 4:45SMUCourtland Sutton 8 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:48SMUJosh Williams 20 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:37ECUPhilip Nelson 7 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBen Hicks 18/30, 235 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKe'Mon Freeman 18 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCourtland Sutton 12 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- PassGardner Minshew II 18/30, 170 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJames Summers 12 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZay Jones 12 REC, 173 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:05SMU +27%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
- Q2 4:53SMU +20%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted for a TD Horace Richardson return for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
- Q2 12:41SMU +18%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 39 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
- Q1 4:45SMU +17%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
- Q2 14:54ECU +16%
James Summers run for 14 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
- Q3 11:32SMU +16%
Horace Richardson 80 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. East Carolina?
SMU 55, East Carolina 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ECU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SMU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 477 | Total yards | 466 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 314 |
| 240 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 25 | First downs | 27 |
| 12-18 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 19/32 | Comp/Att | 29/49 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 9-84 |
| 34:48 | Possession | 25:12 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:48 SMU field goal on 4th & 3 at ECU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:19ECUDevin Anderson 2 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)55–31
- Q4 13:49SMUKevin Johnson 10 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)55–24
- Q3 5:09SMUJosh Williams 32 Yd Field Goal 48–24
- Q3 11:32SMUHorace Richardson 80 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)45–24
- Q2 0:00ECUZay Jones 8 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Davis Plowman Kick)38–24
- Q2 1:09SMUCourtland Sutton 22 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)38–17
- Q2 4:53SMUHorace Richardson 70 Yd Interception Return (Josh Williams Kick)31–17
- Q2 6:05SMUJames Proche 10 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)24–17
- Q2 9:47ECUDavis Plowman 27 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 12:41SMUKe'Mon Freeman 39 Yd Run (Josh Williams Kick)17–14
- Q2 14:54ECUJames Summers 14 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)10–14
- Q1 4:45SMUCourtland Sutton 8 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Josh Williams Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:48SMUJosh Williams 20 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 12:37ECUPhilip Nelson 7 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1432, SMU Elo 1260 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU -9.3 (74% to win) — 2.8 points clear of ECU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #89 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →The series is level at 5–5 · 40% have been one-possession games
| SMU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.0 (#82) | CORE overall | -11.2 (#98) |
| -4 / -0 | offense / defense | -1 / +10 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 1.76 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.92 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →