Charlotte vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 4:56USMParker Adamson 2 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)38–27
- Q4 14:11USMIto Smith 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–20
- Q3 3:18CLTEd Rolle 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Brewer Kick)38–14
- Q3 9:29CLTBlake Brewer 22 Yd Field Goal 31–14
- Q2 0:35CLTT.L. Ford II 18 Yd pass from Hasaan Klugh (Blake Brewer Kick)28–14
- Q2 1:46CLTChris Montgomery 9 Yd Run (Blake Brewer Kick)21–14
- Q2 13:29CLTRobert Washington 58 Yd Run (Blake Brewer Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:35USMChase Whitehead 78 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:45USMKorey Robertson 3 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:33CLTHasaan Klugh 7 Yd Run (Blake Brewer Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassHasaan Klugh 11/24, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKalif Phillips 29 CAR, 183 YDS
- RecWorkpeh Kofa 2 REC, 57 YDS
- PassNick Mullens 19/25, 249 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushIto Smith 15 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Whitehead 2 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLT up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:35CLT +30%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
- Q2 1:46CLT +21%
Chris Montgomery run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
- Q3 9:29CLT +18%
Blake Brewer 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 3:18CLT +14%
Tyler Sarrazin punt blocked by Juwan Foggie blocked by Juwan Foggie Ed Rolle return for no gain for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
- Q1 10:33CLT +11%
Hasaan Klugh run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
- Q1 5:45USM +11%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Charlotte vs. Southern Miss?
Charlotte 38, Southern Miss 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CLT | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 439 | Total yards | 498 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 404 |
| 303 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 18 | First downs | 25 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 12/25 | Comp/Att | 32/53 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-28 | Penalties | 8-60 |
| 29:26 | Possession | 30:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:00 CLT punt on 4th & 6 at USM 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:56USMParker Adamson 2 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)38–27
- Q4 14:11USMIto Smith 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–20
- Q3 3:18CLTEd Rolle 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Brewer Kick)38–14
- Q3 9:29CLTBlake Brewer 22 Yd Field Goal 31–14
- Q2 0:35CLTT.L. Ford II 18 Yd pass from Hasaan Klugh (Blake Brewer Kick)28–14
- Q2 1:46CLTChris Montgomery 9 Yd Run (Blake Brewer Kick)21–14
- Q2 13:29CLTRobert Washington 58 Yd Run (Blake Brewer Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:35USMChase Whitehead 78 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:45USMKorey Robertson 3 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:33CLTHasaan Klugh 7 Yd Run (Blake Brewer Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1452, CLT Elo 973 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -21.6 (91% to win) — 3.1 points clear of USM's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #15 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →| CLT | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.0 (#114) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#65) |
| -14 / +5 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.66 | allowed / drive | 2.17 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →