Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsMISS
- Q4 2:59MSSTCedric Jiles 74 Yd Interception Return (Westin Graves Kick)55–20
- Q4 5:09MSSTNick Fitzgerald 30 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)48–20
- Q3 2:57MSSTNick Fitzgerald 61 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)41–20
- Q3 5:22MSSTFred Ross 38 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)34–20
- Q2 0:26MISSGary Wunderlich 38 Yd Field Goal 27–20
- Q2 4:47MISSDamore'ea Stringfellow 25 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)27–17
- Q2 9:13MSSTMalik Dear 24 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)27–10
- Q2 12:55MSSTAeris Williams 13 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)20–10
- Q1 2:33MSSTDonald Gray 8 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)13–10
- Q1 3:56MISSDamore'ea Stringfellow 19 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)6–10
- Q1 5:48MSSTAeris Williams 16 Yd Run (Westin Graves PAT failed)6–3
- Q1 7:43MISSGary Wunderlich 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassNick Fitzgerald 8/17, 109 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNick Fitzgerald 14 CAR, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- RecFred Ross 1 REC, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- PassShea Patterson 27/48, 320 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushAkeem Judd 19 CAR, 107 YDS
- RecDamore'ea Stringfellow 6 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:22MSST +25%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
- Q2 12:55MSST +21%
Aeris Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
- Q2 9:13MSST +20%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 24 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
- Q1 2:33MSST +17%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
- Q2 4:47MISS +16%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 25 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
- Q1 3:56MISS +16%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 19 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss?
Mississippi State 55, Ole Miss 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSST | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 566 | Total yards | 528 |
| 109 | Passing yards | 320 |
| 457 | Rushing yards | 208 |
| 23 | First downs | 31 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 8/17 | Comp/Att | 27/48 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 9.7 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 28:37 | Possession | 31:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:26 MISS field goal on 4th & 2 at MSST 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.33 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:59MSSTCedric Jiles 74 Yd Interception Return (Westin Graves Kick)55–20
- Q4 5:09MSSTNick Fitzgerald 30 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)48–20
- Q3 2:57MSSTNick Fitzgerald 61 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)41–20
- Q3 5:22MSSTFred Ross 38 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)34–20
- Q2 0:26MISSGary Wunderlich 38 Yd Field Goal 27–20
- Q2 4:47MISSDamore'ea Stringfellow 25 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)27–17
- Q2 9:13MSSTMalik Dear 24 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)27–10
- Q2 12:55MSSTAeris Williams 13 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)20–10
- Q1 2:33MSSTDonald Gray 8 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)13–10
- Q1 3:56MISSDamore'ea Stringfellow 19 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)6–10
- Q1 5:48MSSTAeris Williams 16 Yd Run (Westin Graves PAT failed)6–3
- Q1 7:43MISSGary Wunderlich 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1730, MSST Elo 1544 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -9.8 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #73 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Ole Miss leads 67–47–5 · Ole Miss has won 3 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| MSST | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.4 (#61) | CORE overall | +4.5 (#49) |
| +5 / +4 | offense / defense | +8 / +3 |
| 2.22 | points / drive | 2.28 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.66 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →